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If you’re hoping to minimize your risk exposure when wagering on sports, arbitrage betting in Australia is a highly effective strategy. This enables you to simultaneously bet on opposing sides of the same event, by identifying the discrepancies in odds at different sportsbooks.
In this guide, we’ll explore the legalities of arbitrage betting in Australia, while asking how you can make this work for you.
What is Arbitrage Betting?
Sports betting odds often vary between alternative betting sites in Australia, based on factors such as differing opinions and even pricing errors. Although such discrepancies are usually corrected by betting trends and volumes, they create a short-term opportunity to maximize your profits.
When identifying discrepancies between different sportsbooks, you can bet on opposing sides of the same match to guarantee at least a nominal profit. When engaging in arbitrage betting on events with more than two potential outcomes, however, ‘arbing’ simply improves your chances of optimizing your returns and still carries an inherent risk.
Australian Arbitrage Betting – Is it Legal in Australia?
According to existing laws, Australian arbitrage betting is completely lawful. This is due primarily to the relatively liberal gambling legislation that exists in different Australian states and territories.
However, it’s important to place your arbitrage bets using different sportsbooks. Not only does this increase your chances of identifying viable arbitrage opportunities, but betting sites prohibit you from opening multiple accounts and attempting to place opposing wagers on the same sporting event.
Different Examples of Arbitrage Bets
Now that we’ve answered the question “Is arbitrage betting legal in Australia?”, we’re going to look at various examples of this practice. There are four primary arbitrage betting strategies, each of which has its own strengths and weaknesses.
Unbiased Arbitrage Betting Example
Unbiased arbitrage is a strategy that aims to make the same profit regardless of a sporting event’s outcome. To get started, you’ll first need to identify a viable sports betting arbitrage opportunity, which can be achieved by calculating the bookmaker’s margin and probability in relation to the best available odds. There’s even a formula to help you calculate this:
1 / First Outcome Odds + 1 / Second Outcome Odds
To provide some context, let’s say that you wanted to bet on the upcoming NRL match between the Newcastle Knights and the Dolphins. In this case, the Knights are the favorites and priced at 1.68 to win the match, while the odds of a Dolphin victory are 2.62. Using the above formula, we can create the following calculation:
1 / 1.68 (0.5952) + 1 / 2.62 (0.3816) = 0.9768
If we multiply this by 100, we’re left with a total value of 97.68%. Any value lower than 100% is indicative of an arbitrage opportunity, so long as you’re able to secure the very best available odds.
To flesh out this example, let’s say that you want to wager a total of $100 on this match. You can access optimal odds of 1.68 and 2.62 on the Knights and the Dolphins respectively, while following the equation below to determine your optimal stake:
Stake = $100 / (1.68 / 2.62 + 1) = $60.93
Stake = $100 / (2.62 / 1.68 + 1) = $39.07
Not only does this create a total stake of $100, but it also guarantees an identical profit of $2.36 regardless of which team prevails. This strategy is therefore ideal when you’re wagering on evenly matched sporting events, or in instances where your own analysis makes it difficult to confidently predict a winner.
This strategy is also recommended when wagering on sports or events with just two realistic outcomes. This is the case in the NRL, where tied matches are a statistical rarity. Just 18 games have ended in a tie since the league’s formation back in 1998. In this respect, Aussie Rules is one of the best sports for arbitrage betting in Australia.
| Event Winner | Bookmaker 1 Odds | Bookmaker 2 Odds | Best Odds Available |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Knights | 1.57 | 1.68 | 1.68 |
| Dolphins | 2.62 | 2.40 | 2.62 |
| Margin | 1101.85% | 101.18% | 97.68% |
Biased Arbitrage Betting Explained
To engage in arbitrage betting in Australia, you’ll wager on events or matches where you have a predetermined bias about the eventual winner. In this instance, you’ll want to maximize your potential profits should your pick prevail, while simultaneously minimizing losses if your analysis is inaccurate.
For example, let’s say that you fancied the Dolphins to win on the road against the Knights. The two teams were separated by just two points last season, while the Dolphins have a more potent attack. If you’re confident of a win for Kristian Woolf’s men, you’ll leverage biased arbitrage to strive for a higher profit margin than 2.36%.
This strategy requires two calculations. The first identifies the optimal stake for a Knights’ win, based on the best available odds. This will either enable you to break either or sustain a nominal loss. Secondly, you’ll subtract this sum from your starting bankroll of $100 to determine your wager on the Dolphins. For example:
The Knights: $100 / 1.68 * = $59.52
The Dolphins: $100 – $59.52 = $40.48
If your analysis is correct and the Dolphins prevail, you’ll earn a total profit of 6.06% ($40.48 * 2.62 – $100). This is significantly higher than the profit of $2.36 that’s available through unbiased arbitrage. In the event of the Knights emerging victorious, you’ll incur a nominal loss of -$0.01 (($59.52 * 1.68 – $100), which is reasonable given the potential upside.
Three-Way Soccer Arbitrage Betting Formula
The previous examples each focus on events that have two realistic outcomes. Such sports allow for a simplified arbitrage sports betting experience, as the probability of a draw is either nil or statistically unlikely.
However, popular sports like soccer unlock three-way soccer arbitrage lines. In this case, you have to factor in the draw and the implied probability of this outcome when identifying arbitrage opportunities with the optimal margin. For context, 27% of all English Premier League matches are drawn on average.
Let’s use the EPL match between Arsenal and Chelsea to provide more context. Below, you’ll see the odds for each potential match outcome and whether or not there are any arbitrage betting opportunities:
| Event Winner | Bookmaker 1 Odds | Bookmaker 2 Odds | Best Odds Available |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.80 | 2.30 | 2.30 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Chelsea | 4.40 | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| Margin | 108.12% | 107.56% | 96.04% |
In this case, we can see that an arbitrage betting opportunity exists when leveraging the optimal odds at different sportsbooks. You can then decide whether to adopt an unbiased or biased arbitrage strategy, although calculating your stake amounts here can be both challenging and time-consuming.
So, we’d urge you to use an arbitrage betting calculator when engaging in matches or events with three potential outcomes. This will tell you how to distribute your stake in accordance with the real-time odds and your own analysis.
Middle Betting Arbitrage
So-called “middle betting” is a more advanced Australian arbitrage betting strategy and one that enables you to leverage fluctuating odds and prices to your advantage. More specifically, it enables you to track specific line shifts and place opposing bets, especially when wagering on highly competitive leagues like the NRL, NFL, or Australian cricket.
Using the previous example of the NRL clash between the Knights and the Dolphins, let’s say that you fancy the former to prevail with a nominal handicap of -7.5 points (they won by four points in the corresponding fixture last season).
However, as you track the betting line, you see that the trend is leaning towards -10.5 points. Now, you can place an opposing bet on this outcome by backing the Dolphins at +10.5 points, increasing your market coverage and chances of securing a profit. In this scenario, there are two potential outcomes:
- Both Bets Payout: If the Knights win by between eight and 10 points, you’ll earn a return on both outcomes.
- One Bet Pays Out: If the Knights win by 11 or more points, your initial wager at -7.5 points will also payout. Your second bet on the Dolphins with +10.5 points will pay out if they lose by seven points or less.
Middle betting works particularly well with this type of market. Similarly, you can deploy the middle betting strategy when placing totals wagers, with the use of half-lines optimizing your chances of winning in all instances.
How to Calculate Positive EV (Expected Value) in Sports Betting
A key component of arbitrage betting in Australia is expected value (EV). Positive EV betting in Australia involves a statistical measurement, which is used to predict the outcome of a particular wager over a predetermined number of trials.
More specifically, it factors in the implied probability of an outcome being successful, alongside the likelihood of loss and your potential winnings. Once again, there’s a formula that you can use to calculate this accurately:
EV = (Implied Probability x Total Profit) – (Probability of Losing x Losing Payout)
To use a simplified example, let’s say that you wanted to bet on the toss of a coin. In this case, you place a $100 bet on tails at odds of 2.20. Statistically speaking, there’s a (0.5) or 50% probability of your winning. In this case, the formula would read as follows:
(0.5 * $120) – (0.5 *100) = $10
Any equation that produces a positive value is recommended. In this case, you’ll unlock a 10% positive expected value opportunity and gain a crucial insight that leads to more informed decision-making.
Lewis HumphriesSports Betting Expert
For example, you can back the Sydney Roosters to beat the Penrith Panthers at a long shot price of 10.00. These odds imply just a 10% probability of success, but your analysis reveals that the Roosters have a 20% chance of winning.
After all, just two points separated these teams in the 2024 campaign, while the Roosters have won 28 of the 58 H2H games played at the Penrith Stadium. This creates the following EV proposition if you place a $100 bet:
(0.2 * $900) – (0.8 *100) = $100
This is a high positive EV and one that suggests that such a wager will be profitable over time. It’s, therefore, a heavily recommended bet, and one that’s capable of delivering a potentially sizable return.
What is the Difference Between a Soft and a Sharp Bookmaker?
When you perform your own Aussie bookmaker or casino comparison, you’ll need to make a distinction between ‘soft’ and ‘sharp’ operators. The best Australian sports betting sites tend to be classed as soft operators, but what does this mean and why is it important?
What is a Soft Bookmaker?
A soft bookmaker builds high and often fixed profit margins into its odds. This is the most common business model deployed by betting sites, as it enables them to generate a nominal profit on every wager that they take. However, it’s much harder to find arbitrage opportunities among such operators, as their margins are incredibly fine.
What is a Sharp Bookmaker?
Conversely, a sharp bookie provides more precise odds. These will imply more accurate probability values too, enabling you to simultaneously identify arbitrage opportunities and optimize your chances of being profitable. Ideally, you should place at least one of your arbitrage bets with a sharp bookmaker, such as Pinnacle or Spreadex.
Pros and Cons of Online Arbitrage Betting in Australia
Arbitrage betting undoubtedly enables you to guarantee nominal profits in some instances. However, there’s no such thing as sure bets in Australia, and ‘arbing’ also unlocks several potential disadvantages. But what are the exact pros and cons of arbitrage betting in Australia?
Pros
- Unlock Long-term Returns: Arbitrage betting is a long-term strategy. It enables you to identify positive EV bets and potentially maximize your profits over time.
- Maximize Your Chances of Winning: As arbitrage betting allows you to cover multiple outcomes during the same sporting event, you can maximize your chances of winning.
- There’s a Clear Way to Identify Arbing Opportunities: You can use mathematical equations to calculate the margins and implied probability values associated with a particular event. This makes it quick and easy to identify arbitrage opportunities.
- Leverage Free Bets to Your Advantage: As with strategies such as matched betting, arbitrage enables you to cover both sides of a two-way betting line. So, you can use free bets to your advantage to guarantee a profit in some instances.
Cons
- It can be Hard to Find Arbitrage Opportunities: As most bookmakers in Australia are ‘soft’ and bake profit margins into their odds, it can be hard to find viable arbitrage opportunities between different sportsbooks.
- Odds Can Change Quickly: Most arbitrage opportunities occur when odds are first released ahead of a sporting event, and typically have a short lifespan. So, if you don’t identify opportunities quickly and act, you may be unable to capitalize.
Top 5 Sports for Arbitrage Betting?
Now, we’re going to take a closer look at the best sports for arbitrage betting in Australia. Each of these disciplines are favourable because tied matches are either not possible or statistically improbable. This creates just two potential outcomes that can be covered through arbitrage.
[/su_tab][/su_tabs]Arbitrage Using Automation and Sports Betting Bots
Pros and seasoned sports bettors tend to use arbitrage betting software. This enables them to scan odds across a huge selection of events and bookmakers, before receiving tailored alerts when relevant arbitrage opportunities present themselves. Here are the best such tools in the Australian market.
- Bonus Bank – Bonus Bank caters specifically to the Australian market and covers at least 18 bookmakers and odds from thousands of events. It also has an integrated calculator tool that lets you know the optimal stake for each side. Although you’ll have to subscribe, it costs just $59 per month to access all features.
- RebelBetting – RebelBetting is a software tool that enables you to engage in arbitrage, value, and sure betting. This site covers numerous offshore sportsbooks and two sites based in Australia, while it costs $99 per month to register for a RebelBetting account.
- WagerWise – WagerWise is also available in Australia and is a mathematically based software program that identifies price and market inefficiencies in real-time. It also compares odds across a broad selection of leagues and competitions, including the NRL, AFL, NFL, and NBA. The program delivers mathematically profitable bets and tracked profits.
Lewis HumphriesSports Betting Expert
Can Bookmakers Block Arbitrage Bettors?
Bookmakers will clamp down on arbing if they suspect you of placing betting on opposing sides of an event using different accounts. In this instance, they may restrict or close your accounts, while preventing you from withdrawing associated winnings.
However, if you identify arbitrage opportunities at different sportsbooks, you can bet freely and without issue. You should also prioritize arbitrage-friendly sites, including Pinnacle, Spreadex, Smarkets, and Betfair.
Also, keep your eyes peeled for the best Australian sports betting sites, such as Spinsy, Instant Casino, and Instawin. This will ensure excellent coverage of the best Australian sports and leagues. For casino and game fans, then the Aussie favourite of poker might be more interesting to you.
