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Having multiple sports betting strategies is key to minimizing your losses and making the most of your starting bankroll. However, it can be hard to create an effective strategy given the variables involved in sports betting and the differences between different disciplines.
The good news is that there are basic sports betting strategies and principles that may contribute to better picks and practices over time. But what are some examples of basic and advanced betting strategies, and how can they vary between different sports? Don’t worry we’ll cover everything you need to know before logging into your favorite online sportsbook.
Why Use a Betting Strategy?
As we’ve touched on, an informed sports betting strategy helps to introduce order and logic. Especially when wagering on unpredictable events and matches. While the unpredictability of sports like football and soccer helps to make them so popular among viewers, it also makes profitable betting incredibly difficult.
A strategic approach also encourages you to assume greater control over various aspects of sports betting, such as your stake amount, the wager types that you deploy, and the strategic use of free bet offers. For example, you could combine several different match favorites in a multi-game parlay, at a single, extended price. When used successfully, such strategies can turn the odds in your favor and directly counter a sportsbook’s house edge.
Professional sports bettors often employ betting strategies like the ones we’ve mentioned to build their bankrolls and make millions of dollars. While you may not be at the pro level yet, betting strategies offer a different perspective on sports betting and can help you not only increase your winnings but may even add to the fun!
What is a Sports Betting Strategy?
A sports betting strategy helps you to negate the house edge that favors sportsbooks partially. Remember, online betting sites typically apply a minimum 10% commission (or ‘vigorish’) on the odds that they set, affording them a nominal edge across all moneylines, point spreads, and over/under markets.
To provide some context, let’s say that two bettors wager $11 on opposite sides of an NBA game between the Brooklyn Nets and Boston Celtics (at odds of 11/10). This creates a total risk of $22, while the winner will bank a return of $11 and recoup their initial stake of $10 ($21 in total).
In this instance, the house keeps $1, and if you divide this profit by the $22 staked and multiply the remaining value by 100, you can see that the house retains a 4.55% edge. So, you must recognize this and develop a betting strategy to help counter it.
This is where understanding odds (see section on this below) becomes so important. This is especially the case in a live betting environment where lines and odds are changing all the time, increasing the prospect of one book’s odds being bigger than their rivals.
Basic Sports Betting Strategies
Let’s get straight into some basic sports betting strategies that work. These are single building blocks that enable you to take control of your wagers and selections.
By grasping these, you can simultaneously minimize the risk of loss while accessing enhanced betting odds. You can also lay the foundation for more advanced betting strategies, which we’ll touch on a little later on.
The comprehension of odds and basic bet types like moneyline and point spreads is crucial to any successful betting strategy. This is because odds can be used both to calculate your potential return and the implied probability of a particular outcome occurring.
“American odds”, rather than decimal or fractional, are by some distance the most popular way to bet in the US. American odds will always be a number with either a ‘minus’ or a ‘plus’ sign attached to them. The minus sign is indicative of a betting favorite, while the accompanying number tells you exactly how much you’ll need to stake to win $100. So if the odds are -150, you would wager $150 to win $100
Conversely, the plus sign denotes a betting underdog and lets you know how much you’ll win for every $100 staked. So, if you successfully backed the Chicago Bulls to upset the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA at pre-game odds of +325, a $100 bet would unlock a profit of $325, plus your $100 stake.
When using American odds to calculate implied probability, there are two separate equations to consider depending on whether you’re backing an underdog or a favorite. For example:
- For Positive Odds: (100 / (odds + 100)) * 100
- For Negative Odds: ((odds * -1) / ((odds * -1) + 100)) * 100
Using the same example of betting on the Cavaliers vs the Bulls, we can see that the latter’s odds of +325 imply a 23.52% probability of them winning (100 / (300 + 100) * 100). Alternatively, you can back the Cavaliers at a price of -360, suggesting that they have a 78.26% of prevailing: ((-360 * -1) / ((-360 * -1) + 100)) * 100).
This understanding can help you to identify really good value bets, and hopefully set your stake amounts accordingly!
Ultimately, the less time a set of odds/lines has been live and in the public domain, the less time people have had to react to them. The most likely time to find value odds is early in the cycle of the market, which means as soon as they go live.
Also, whilst the variation among sportsbooks is lower than it used to be, there are still outliers when it comes to early odds/lines. It is, therefore, vital that you scan a range of offshore sportsbooks for the best odds/lines, as well as any new futures markets.
Bankroll management describes the organization and deployment of your sports betting budget, usually over a predetermined period. This is fundamental when you learn how to bet smart on sports, as it encourages you to develop a disciplined and strategic mindset and plan your betting activity in more detail.
This can be especially useful when placing multiple bets during a particular timeframe or competition. For example, let’s say that you wanted to set a $2000 bankroll for the entire NFL regular season, and wager on approximately five matches each week. You could calculate your bankroll as follows:
Gavin BeechiGaming Expert
More generally, try to ensure that individual stakes never exceed 5% of your bankroll. This lets you withstand losses more effectively and gives you a little wiggle room to increase stakes when needed!
In a nutshell, extensive parlay bets of 5+ selections are not great bets, irrespective of the odds of each individual leg. Whilst the returns of big parlay wagers might look appealing, they are actually poor value. This is because the vigorish of each selection (average 10%) is multiplied across each selection, so the more selections in your parlay, the greater the total vigorish.
Extensive parlays also require a huge amount of fortune, even if you combine heavy favorites.
It’s not a regular occurrence that all the favorites win, in any league, and it only takes one piece of misfortune in any single game for an entire parlay to go up in smoke. If you do want to do a big multi-leg parlay, then some sportsbooks offer Parlay insurance, which gives you a payout if one leg lets you down.
‘Study the form’ may be one of the most generic pieces of sports betting advice imaginable, but accessing and studying data can be key to a successful wagering strategy. The key is identifying the most relevant datasets and statistics, depending on your chosen sport and the outcomes you intend to back. Here are three examples of freely available data sets that you can utilize in sports betting.
- In the NFL, one of the most telling betting metrics is ‘Against the Spread’, which can be found on data sites like BetIQ. This metric details how teams are faring in relation to the point spread set by individual sportsbooks.
- Many betting fans in the US will know of a site called Statmuse, where there is any amount of useful data available on all sports. For example, in the NHL section, there is a ‘Betting Trends’ segment highlighting teams that have the best/worst recent record against the Puck Line.
- Golf bettors are now blessed with a world of crucial player data from sites like Datagolf, including driving data for individual tournaments/courses. It’s now super-easy to see which courses any player drives or putts best (or worst), making it easier than ever before to cherry-pick players for each tournament.
Professional Sports Betting Strategy
If you consider yourself to be a more seasoned bettor, you may feel ready to embrace more advanced sports betting strategies. These can lead to further gains and even guarantee nominal profits in some instances, although they’re slightly more complex and difficult to execute sports betting techniques.
If you’re just getting started, we urge you to check out our comprehensive sports betting terminology guide and understand some of the most widely used terms.
Hedging Bets
The process of ‘hedging’ is typically one that follows after an original bet moves into a positive position. For example, you have backed Justin Thomas to win the US Open at +800 and, in the final round, he’s clear of the pack with Bryson DeChambeau.
To ensure you make a profit on the tournament, you can either cash out of the Thomas wager for a profit or place a ‘hedge’ bet on the DeChambeau to ensure that whichever of the pair wins, you make cash on the tournament.
You can hedge in several ways. You can place a hedge bet that simply covers the losses of an original bet, or place a hedge wager that ensures profit on an event.
If we had $100 on Justin Thomas at +800 and Bryson DeChambeau, the only player that can beat him given the pair are so far clear on the final round, is available to bet at +200, then we would have a $50 bet on DeChambeau to ensure we covered the $100 stake on Thomas. If we wanted to ensure a profit from either bet, we simply increase the stake on DeChambeau.
To ensure we made equal profits from both players at the above prices, we would stake like this:
$100 Justin Thomas @ 8/1 to return $900
$300 Bryson DeChambeau @ 2/1 to return $900
Total stake: $400
Profit on Justin Thomas bet: $500 ($900-$400)
Profit on Bryson DeChambeau bet: $500 ($900-$400)
Understanding Hooks in Point Spread Betting
The half-point or ‘hook’ may seem like a small detail in sports betting, but it’s a huge tool in the bettor’s armory. Half points are used in point spread betting to eliminate the draw as a potential outcome, theoretically increasing your chances of placing a successful bet.
Using the previous example of backing the 49ers to defeat the Cardinals with a point spread of -7.5, the former would have to win by eight points to secure a payout. When backing the Cardinals with a spread of +7.5, they just need to lose by seven points or less to cover the spread.
You can also buy the hook in a spread, once again altering a betting line in exchange for a slightly higher stake. So, you could theoretically back the 49ers at -7 points, potentially creating extended odds in the process.
Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage is an opportunist method that involves you taking advantage of different sportsbooks holding different opinions on a specific line or set of odds. These odds sniping opportunities come along when there is sufficient difference in the odds or lines that you can back both sides and lock in a profit.
For example, a boxing fight between two fighters who are relatively young can lead to a difference in opinion between books about the chances of each fighter. If BetOnline is offering +110 for fighter X and Bovada is offering +110 for player Y (in a two-way market), for example, then you can back both sides of this moneyline and guarantee a profit, no matter the result of the fight.
In this instance, you would be able to bet equal stakes on each player at +110 odds. So, a $100 wager on both fighters would be a total cost of $200, with a guaranteed return of $210 whichever boxer wins. That’s a $10 guaranteed profit, which is 5% of the total outlay.
Dutching
Dutching is another strategy that involves multiple wagers to guarantee a profit. However, unlike arbitrage betting, where you would focus on each side of a particular line or set of odds, Dutching involves betting on multiple outcomes across a single event to produce a profit. To achieve the desired outcome, you must have access to the right balance of odds, which invariably means multiple sports betting sites.
Contrarian Betting Strategy (or, Fading the Public!)
The contrarian betting strategy is exactly as it sounds. More specifically, it’s a strategy that involves betting against the public or popular sentiment, based on the notion that the average bettor is uninformed and biased towards specific outcomes or markets.
It may also be assumed that bettors are placing emotive wagers on their favorite sides, causing the most supported teams to carry a disproportionately short price (especially in the most popular sports). So, in certain instances, there’s value in going against the grain and betting on alternative and higher-priced outcomes.
Cashing Out Early
Most sportsbooks enable you to cash out before bets have been settled, although the T&Cs deployed by each operator may vary wildly. Some allow particularly early cash outs, which for example, can help you to minimize loss in the event of wagers going against you.
Timing is key when cashing out early, especially when wagering in-play on high-scoring and fast-paced sports such as basketball, but live betting markets now mean that you can cash out for a small profit when in front, or take a small hit but at least save some cash if the game has not gone the way you expected.
Become an Expert
Expert sports bettors don’t rely on the professional sports betting tips of others. This is because they can boast their own extensive knowledge of specific disciplines, teams, and players. They subsequently leverage this to identify and create value in published odds, while many such bettors hone their skills over time.
So, if you’re an avid NFL or NBA fan and have extensive knowledge of these leagues, you have all the tools you need to become an informed and strategic bettor. The key is to start slowly and scale your efforts in line with increased success and experience, while also identifying the best resources to help guide you on your journey.
Here at ReadWrite, for example, we offer objective information and insight across a broad range of sports. We also publish informational articles that help you to get to grips with the intricacies of sports betting and strategies such as bankroll management.
The Difference Between Sports Betting Strategies and Sports Betting Systems
Whilst on the face of it terms like ‘sports betting strategies’ and ‘sports betting systems’ appear to be much the same thing, the reality is there are key differences. A sports betting system describes several tested rules, betting methods, and principles that you use when placing bets, such as your starting bet unit.
Conversely, gambling strategies provide a holistic and overarching approach to minimizing losses and optimizing returns over time. So, you may use one or more betting systems (such as matched betting) as key components of a much broader strategy across different sports.
Best Betting Strategy for Sports
Of course, the key sports betting systems and sports betting strategies that you deploy will vary wildly from one discipline to another. Here’s our take on some of the best sports betting strategies for specific categories and leagues.
NBA Betting Strategy
The majority of US bettors that wager on the NBA lose in the long term. As a result, it can pay in the long term to bet against the crowd. Thanks to real-time public money information and the percentage of bets placed on specific teams, it’s easy to see which way the NBA public is betting.
To do this successfully, you’ll need to monitor initial betting lines and observe their movements over time while using ATS (Against the Spread record) and similar datasets to identify where the public may have gotten it wrong!
MLB Betting Strategy
Over/under betting is particularly popular when wagering on baseball and the Major Baseball League. This is especially true if the pitching matchup sways you in a particular game, while you can fare particularly well by targeting games with significantly high over/under lines (such as +7.5 lines).
High-scoring games can also favor betting underdogs, which may unlock high-value moneylines and point spreads too. Much will depend on your match analysis, while combination betting and parlays may also prove valuable in some instances.
NFL Betting Strategy
We’ve already touched on how NFL bettors can access weekly rankings based on how they’ve performed in relation to covering the spread set by bookies. So, point spread betting can be particularly effective in the NFL, as you can use past performances to identify the best value spreads and set optimal stake amounts.
The top NFL betting sites should offer up-to-date lines, but shopping around is always important. This also helps to create value when betting on NFL matches.
NHL Betting Strategy
Home-field advantage is a key consideration in any sports betting strategy, but this varies from one sport to another. Interestingly, just 59% of NHL matches are won by the home side, which highlights the competitive nature of the league, and how open, free-scoring games can lead to surprise results.
This makes the practice of hedging bets particularly effective in the NHL. This way, you can strategically deploy free bet offers and cover all potential match outcomes at the same odds, enabling you to bank nominal (and, most importantly, guaranteed) profits throughout a season.
Soccer Betting Strategy
On home-field advantage, it’s soccer teams that are most likely to win in front of their own fans. This trend is particularly prevalent in the MLS, where a staggering 69.1% of all games are won by the home team.
So, you should factor this into your weekly picks while paying close attention to the respective home and away forms of competing teams. Where appropriate, you can also execute point spread bets to handicap betting favorites. This unlocks enhanced odds, but this option should only be used sparingly.
Gavin BeechiGaming Expert
Golf Betting Strategy
Golf is quite a unique sport from a betting perspective, but there are betting strategies that you can use
to achieve a competitive edge. For example, aim to study specific courses and the past performances of players at selected venues.
Some tracks favor big-hitting and driving players, for example, whereas others tend to encounter challenging windy weather conditions and suit artful professionals or those
with a more rounded skillset. You’ll find that you can eliminate a huge chunk of the field from your calculations based on these data sets and player history alone.
Tennis Betting Strategy
The variation of court surfaces is a focus of many betting strategies but other angles are worthy of exploration. For example, the rate at which service games are held in women’s tennis is much lower than in the men’s game.
For women, it’s around 65% but that number varies from surface to surface. An interesting statistics is that successful first serve rates on clay are lower than other surfaces. This leads to a higher rate of service games lost overall. This is a data set that can be deployed in the ‘Next Game Winner’ market when the odds are in your favor.
Horse Racing Betting Strategy
There are a million horse racing strategies out there, many of which can be successful over any given period of time. There might be a spell at Churchill where the inside of the track is proving slower. This makes it harder for horses coming out of low gate numbers. Or, you might be big on barn form. The key to these, like most racing strategies, is locking on early at horse racing betting sites. This is because trends quickly become apparent to the masses, and that is the point at which the value disappears.
Responsible Sports Betting
As you can see, no single sports betting strategy guarantees long-term success. You’ll always incur the risk of loss as a bettor. This is why it’s important that Responsible gambling is applied to bankroll management no matter what the sports betting strategy.
It caps the amount that you wager at an amount you can afford to lose over a specified period of time, while you can also use each sportsbook’s daily, weekly, and monthly deposit limits to manage this practically.
However, if you find yourself betting outside of your means or chasing losses, you should visit one of the following free sites that can guide you in the right direction.
