Today in prediction market news, we’re tracking the biggest developments across the industry in real time, including a federal judge’s decision to send Kalshi’s lawsuit against Michigan back to state court, new legal filings involving Kalshi and the New Mexico Tribes, and fresh momentum for federal prediction market legislation on Capitol Hill. We’ll also cover the Senate Democrats’ effort to limit the CFTC’s litigation funding, and the latest exchange fee filings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Follow our live blog throughout the day for breaking updates, market reactions, and analysis from across the prediction markets, sports event trading, crypto, and regulated forecasting industries.
House Panel advances bill banning lawmakers from prediction markets
A House committee has advanced the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act (H.R. 9367), legislation that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and dependent children from profiting from prediction markets. The bill cleared the House Administration Committee on a 5-4 vote after being amended, marking its first legislative milestone. It now awaits consideration by the full House.
If enacted, the measure would ban covered individuals from trading contracts tied to government policy, political outcomes, government actions, or other events they become aware of through their congressional service. Violations would carry financial penalties of at least $2,000 or 10% of the contract's value—whichever is greater—plus any profits earned from the prohibited trades. The restrictions would take effect 180 days after enactment. The bill does not restrict the general public from using prediction markets; it applies only to members of Congress and their immediate families.
Kalshi, Polymarket file new exchange fee changes with the CFTC
Kalshi and Polymarket US have each submitted new fee-related filings to the CFTC as they continue expanding their regulated exchanges. Kalshi filed a temporary rebate program that would refund all net maker and taker trading fees for eligible self-clearing members trading perpetual futures through the end of 2026, with the goal of boosting liquidity and adoption.
Separately, Kalshi proposed updating its perpetual futures fee schedule to extend its existing maker-taker pricing structure to FCM customers, with the changes scheduled to take effect after the required notice period.
Meanwhile, Polymarket US filed a revised fee schedule introducing block trading. Under the proposal, block trades will carry separate maker and taker fees, although the exchange plans to waive those fees entirely for the first three months after launch as an introductory promotion. The filing leaves Polymarket US's existing central limit order book fee schedule unchanged.
Polymarket US also submitted a related request asking the CFTC to keep portions of its fee methodology and rebate program confidential under FOIA, arguing disclosure could reveal proprietary commercial information and harm its competitive position.
Senate Democrats seek to block CFTC lawsuits against states
In a letter to Senate appropriators, the lawmakers argue the agency's recent lawsuits undermine states' longstanding authority to regulate gambling and could fuel a "gambling public health crisis."
They want language included in the FY2027 appropriations bill prohibiting the CFTC from spending taxpayer money on litigation aimed at preventing states and tribes from enforcing their gambling laws and gaming compacts.
Kalshi moves to dismiss New Mexico tribal lawsuit
Kalshi is asking a federal court to dismiss a lawsuit brought by several New Mexico tribes, arguing they lack the authority to regulate the federally regulated exchange or its non-members.
In the filing, Kalshi contends the Commodity Exchange Act gives the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over its event contracts, preempting tribal laws that plaintiffs seek to enforce. The exchange also argues that the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act does not expand tribal authority over non-members and says the tribes' gaming compact cannot bind Kalshi because it is not a party to the agreement.
https://twitter.com/WALLACHLEGAL/status/2070185691607077290/
Kalshi highlights Biden SG's brief supporting federal oversight
Denault says the brief argues that prediction markets serve an important economic purpose, function as federally regulated exchanges rather than sportsbooks or casinos, and require exclusive nationwide federal oversight under the CFTC.
According to the filing, applying a patchwork of state gambling laws would undermine prediction markets' core benefits, including price discovery, information aggregation, and risk hedging. The brief adds another significant voice to the growing legal debate over federal versus state authority.
Biden Admin Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar just weighed in on the fight between prediction markets and states with a powerful brief for @PredictAction.
— robertjdenault (@robertjdenault) June 25, 2026
One major takeaway: this is not a D versus R issue, but a casino versus consumer issue.
A quick 🧵on her argument. pic.twitter.com/JTzBJZEXN2
Michigan judge sends Kalshi back to state court
The legal battle between Kalshi and the Michigan Attorney General has taken another turn. A federal judge has remanded the case back to Michigan state court, cancelling a scheduled oral argument and rejecting Kalshi's attempt to keep the dispute in federal court.
In a detailed opinion, Judge Paul Maloney said the state's claims don't necessarily raise federal issues, questioned Kalshi's broad preemption arguments under the Commodity Exchange Act, and found the CFTC isn't a necessary party to the case. The decision means the fight now returns to state court, where Michigan's request for a preliminary injunction against Kalshi is already pending.
MIchigan federal court to Kalshi:
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) June 26, 2026
Go back to state court.
Judge Maloney cancels oral argument and remands the Michigan Attorney General's civil enforcement lawsuit vs. Kalshi back to state court, where a motion for preliminary injunction is already teed up vs. Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/H4UL9nRmgL
