With the pivotal U.S. presidential election day upon us, the betting markets moved to narrow the margins and bite into Donald Trump’s lead, with some outlets showing Kamala Harris take the lead.
Team Trump has been bullish about the credentials of the betting market forecasts in the run-up to the election, stating they are more accurate than traditional polls, given the lead the 45th POTUS had seemingly established.
As Americans rise for the day and prepare to cast their vote, there appears to be very little between the candidates. That was reflected in the last day of campaigning on Monday, as both contenders concentrated on the battleground states.
Trump ended his pitch with four MAGA rallies across North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, while Harris’ focused her efforts in Pennsylvania.
The election has acted as a catalyst for the popularity of apps such as Polymarket and Kalshi, with their prominence increasing as many flocked to their platforms to back the candidate they believe will win the race for the White House.
On Monday, Trump’s prospects of victory in the presidential election appeared to fall, with Polymarket showing a 58% chance (down from 67% last week) and Kalshi indicating a 53% chance (down from 65%).
It has to be noted that these are prediction markets, with an element of speculation. The bets drive the price of returns and the supposed probability of the outcome unfolding.
Accuracy of the prediction markets has been questioned
One notable event in recent days has been a poll prediction that Harris is leading in Iowa.
The Hawkeye State was secured convincingly by Trump in 2016 and 2020, but a Selzer poll indicated the incumbent vice-president was winning by three points. Trump fired back on his Truth Social network stating “It’s not even close,” but Iowa will be one of the talking points of the election outcome.
The landscape on other platforms varied, with PredictIt showing a lead for the Democrat contender for the first time in almost a month. Harrish was given a 53% chance of success, while Trump was just behind on 51%.
Across these outlets, the accuracy of the presidential election prediction markets has been questioned, especially after it emerged one person had staked more than $30m on Trump securing a concurrent term in office.
The gambler and Polymarket – which launched a fresh funding round in September – both denied it was an attempt to manipulate the market.
Speaking to The Wall Street Journal, the man who identified himself as Theo merely stated “My intent is just making money,” adding there was “absolutely no political agenda.”
Image credit: Via Midjourney
