Tensions are rising fast in the Middle East, and now there’s growing speculation that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, might not stay in power through the end of 2025. And it appears that betting markets focusing on Iran are leaning heavily in that direction as well.
Polymarket, a popular online prediction platform, has seen a flood of bets on whether Khamenei will still be leading Iran by December 31 of next year. So far, over $2.1 million has been placed on this question, and the odds currently suggest that he’ll be out, with “Yes” leading at around 61.5%.
While prediction markets don’t guarantee outcomes, they are often seen as a real-time snapshot of public sentiment and informed speculation. By tracking where people are willing to put their money, the markets can give an insight into how likely certain events are perceived to be, especially during fast-moving geopolitical crises.
Betting on Khamenei exiting Iran rises
In this case, Khamenei has been Iran’s Supreme Leader since 1989. He’s the country’s top authority and holds enormous sway over everything from politics to the military to religious matters.
What’s really pushed this betting market into overdrive is the dramatic military escalation that happened last week in Iran. On Friday (June 13), Israel launched a major attack on Iran’s nuclear and military sites. According to reports, Israel used warplanes and drones that had been smuggled into the country to strike key locations, killing several high-ranking Iranian scientists and military officials.
“We’re entering a zone where every headline matters. A change in posture from Washington could move global markets within minutes.” – Nigel Green, deVere Group CEO
Israel says the attack was necessary to prevent Iran from getting any closer to building a nuclear weapon. That claim is still being debated by intelligence agencies, but the United States has admitted it was already concerned about Iran’s nuclear ambitions before the strikes happened.
In response, Iran fired waves of ballistic missiles at cities across Israel. Explosions lit up the skies above Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, and some missiles damaged buildings. The Israeli military told residents to take shelter. Not long after, Israel announced that it had gained control of the skies over Tehran, adding even more pressure to an already explosive situation.
All of this has sparked new questions about Khamenei’s grip on power. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has suggested that targeting Khamenei directly is still on the table. Meanwhile, social media is buzzing with speculation about what might happen next, including talk of internal unrest and possible succession issues inside Iran’s leadership.
Speculation over US involvement
As if things weren’t tense enough, former US President Donald Trump weighed in with a series of blunt posts on his Truth Social account on Tuesday. He said the US now has total control of Iranian airspace and described Khamenei as an “easy target.” While he stopped short of calling for immediate action, the tone of his message made it clear that patience is running out.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 17, 2025
“We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding… He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now,” Trump wrote. “But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin.”
Consequently, on Tuesday, in a separate Polymarket wager, the odds that the United States will carry out a strike on Iran before the end of June jumped to 67%.
BREAKING: The U.S. is projected to take imminent military action against Iran.
67% chance. pic.twitter.com/Cqcy3OnBki
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) June 16, 2025
Claims over insider betting on Iran
At the same time, some serious questions are being raised about possible insider trading on Polymarket. Several traders have pointed out that the odds in the Khamenei market started climbing as much as 12 hours before Israel launched its surprise strike on Iran. That’s led to speculation that someone might have had advance knowledge of the attack.
One account in particular was reportedly created shortly before the strike, placed large bets predicting Khamenei would be out of power, and ended up making around $134,000. Right after collecting the winnings, the account withdrew the funds and vanished. The timing and behavior have fueled suspicions that this wasn’t just a lucky guess, but a calculated move based on insider information.
Polymarket acknowledged the platform’s growing role in interpreting world events, especially during times of uncertainty. A disclaimer on the site reads: “The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today.”
Still, questions remain about the ethical implications of betting on geopolitical crises, particularly when potential insider information could be influencing the market.
Markets face destabilization
In a statement seen by ReadWrite, Nigel Green, CEO of the financial advisory giant deVere Group, didn’t mince words about how quickly things could spiral if the conflict escalates. “If a broader war breaks out, there’s no reason to believe markets will process that information gradually,” he said. “The initial reaction will be fast and disorderly.”
For bettors watching global events closely, that kind of volatility means every piece of information could shift the odds. As Green put it, “We’re entering a zone where every headline matters.” Even a slight shift in Washington’s tone, he warned, could jolt global markets, and, by extension, shake up betting lines within minutes.
Featured image: Grok / Canva
