Pew has released its analysis
of how the Internet will evolve over the next 14 or so years (2020). I’m inclined to
agree with
Om Malik that the conclusions about the technology are rather obvious: “a global,
low-cost network will be thriving in 2020”, which will bring about a “‘flattening’ of the
world”. You don’t need to be Stanley Kubrick to figure that out.
The part I enjoyed the most was the section labeled: ‘Thinking ahead to 2020: Some
revealing quotations and predictions from the thousands of answers that were submitted to
open-ended questions in the survey.’
I don’t know if it was just me, but most of the predictions sounded remarkably like
the plots or themes of famous sci-fi books or movies…
Some took inspiration from The Matrix movie…
“The evolution of smart machines: “Fear of enslavement by our creations is an
old fear, and a literary tritism. But I fear something worse and much more likely –
that sometime after 2020 our machines will become intelligent, evolve rapidly, and end up
treating us as pets. We can at least take comfort that there is one worse fate –
becoming food – that mercifully is highly unlikely.” – Paul Saffo,
forecaster and director of The Institute for the Future”
Others took their cue from 2001: A Space Odyssey…
““Until testing, bug fixing, user interfaces, usefulness and basic application
by subjectmatter experts is given a higher priority than pure programmer skill, we are
totally in danger of evolving into an out-of-control situation with autonomous
technology.” – Elle Tracy, president of The Results Group”
There was the obligatory William Gibson-inspired Virtual Reality fantasy:
“The allure of virtual reality: “A human’s desire is to reinvent himself, live
out his fantasies, overindulge; addiction will definitely increase. Whole
communities/subcultures, which even today are a growing faction, will materialise. We may
see a vast blurring of virtual/real reality with many participants living an in-effect
secluded lifestyle. Only in the online world will they participate in any form of human
interaction.” – Robert Eller, technology consultant”
Even the boardgame Monopoly was evoked…
“How information disseminates: “Profit motives will impede data flow …
Networks will conform to the public utility model, with stakeholders in generation,
transmission, and distribution. Companies playing in each piece of the game will enact
roadblocks to collect what they see as their fair share of tariff revenue.” –
Peter Kim, senior analyst, Forrester Research”
But don’t get me wrong, I love reading this stuff! It’s just that I usually get my fix
of such content from sci-fi books and movies 🙂
