Polymarket challenges France block as Kalshi launches new hub

Today in prediction market news, we’re following the biggest developments shaping the industry, including Polymarket’s decision to challenge France’s website block, Kalshi’s launch of its Midterms Hub ahead of the 2026 elections, and fresh debate over prediction markets as former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney and CME Group CEO Terry Duffy weigh in on the sector. We’ll also cover new questions surrounding a Polymarket-linked crypto wallet, the platform’s expansion of its restricted countries list, and breaking developments across prediction markets, election forecasting, crypto, regulation, and sports event trading throughout the day.

Live Updated 22 seconds ago

ProphetX enters the gaming arena

suswati 4:22 pm

ProphetX is taking its sports prediction markets to a new audience through a partnership with Players' Lounge, the real-money gaming platform popular with competitive Madden, NBA 2K, Call of Duty and Fortnite players. The integration gives eligible users access to CFTC-regulated sports event contracts directly within the Players' Lounge ecosystem, covering everything from NFL games to championship futures. ProphetX says the move is part of a wider strategy to bring prediction markets to digitally native audiences through business partnerships rather than traditional sportsbooks.

Congress targets sports prediction markets

suswati 4:20 pm

Pressure on prediction markets is no longer coming just from regulators—Congress is joining the party. Nevada Representatives Steven Horsford and Mark Amodei have introduced bipartisan legislation that would ban sports betting-style event contracts on federally regulated prediction markets, while also targeting casino-style games offered on platforms such as Kalshi.

The proposal comes amid an escalating legal tug-of-war between the CFTC, state regulators and the gaming industry over who gets to police event contracts. If passed, the bill would redraw the line between financial forecasting and gambling.

Nevada congressmen introduce bipartisan bill to ban sports betting on prediction markets
Rep. Steven Horsford (D-NV) and Rep. Mark Amodei’s (R-NV) bill would also ban casino-style games on sites such as Kalshi.
Via @MiniRacker @TheNVIndy https://t.co/5lchAOq9tT
— Howard Stutz (@howardstutz) July 23, 2026

Prediction markets defend their DNA

suswati 4:18 pm

The prediction market industry is making its case in the court of public opinion as well as the courtroom. Appearing on CNBC, former CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz argued that companies in the Coalition for Prediction Markets have "regulatory compliance in their DNA," pushing back against claims that federally regulated exchanges operate in a legal grey area.

The comments come as legal battles over sports event contracts intensify across multiple states, with regulators and the gaming industry questioning where derivatives end and gambling begins.

“The companies in this coalition have regulatory compliance in their DNA,” former CFTC Commissioner @BrianQuintenz on @SquawkCNBC this morning. pic.twitter.com/WB2tpQOuRs
— Coalition for Prediction Markets (@PredictAction) July 23, 2026

AGA joins New York prediction market fight

suswati 4:13 pm

The legal scrum over sports prediction markets just picked up another heavyweight. The American Gaming Association (AGA) has filed a motion to intervene in the CFTC's lawsuit against New York State, throwing its support behind the state's efforts to regulate sports event contracts. The CFTC, meanwhile, is arguing that federally regulated derivatives exchanges should be shielded from state enforcement under federal law. Translation: one side says Washington should call the shots, the other says Albany still has a whistle.

NEW: The American Gaming Association has filed a motion to intervene in the CFTC's lawsuit against New York State over sports prediction markets. The CFTC's lawsuit is seeking to prevent the @NewYorkStateAG from enforcing state law against DCMs offering sports-event contracts.
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) July 23, 2026

Sports bettors dominate Polymarket activity

suswati 4:11 pm

Turns out the busiest prediction market traders aren't obsessing over elections—they're watching the scoreboard. New analysis from Pew Research Center found sports-focused Polymarket users placed a median of 69 trades over a six-week period, comfortably ahead of crypto traders (59) and political traders (13). The study also found most users concentrate around three-quarters of their activity on a single topic rather than spreading bets across multiple markets. While politics may grab the headlines and crypto gets the memes, it's sports traders quietly doing the heavy lifting.

Most #Polymarket users we analyzed placed about three-quarters of their trades on one topic.

Of those users:
⚽ #Sports traders placed an average of 69 trades
📈 #Crypto traders placed an average of 59 trades
🗳️ #Politics traders placed an average of 13 trades pic.twitter.com/zDiHriWVmQ
— Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) July 22, 2026

Nadex takes Washington to court

suswati 4:08 pm

Washington State's legal battle with prediction markets has gained another player. Just two days after the state's attorney general secured a preliminary injunction against Kalshi, North American Derivatives Exchange (Nadex) has filed a federal lawsuit seeking to stop Washington officials from taking similar action against its platform. Nadex argues that, as a federally regulated exchange, oversight belongs to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission—not state authorities. In other words, the latest courtroom drama isn't about who wins the bet, but who gets to referee the game.

Two days after Washington State Attorney General Nick Brown obtained a preliminary injunction against Kalshi in state court, North American Derivatives Exchange files a federal court lawsuit to block the AG's Office from doing the same thing to NADEX, claiming federal preemption. pic.twitter.com/nd1kylmUEg
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) July 23, 2026

Kalshi: AI's compute crunch may be easing

suswati 4:05 pm

Kalshi Research has turned its attention from elections to GPUs, arguing the AI industry's biggest bottleneck—compute—may finally be starting to loosen. The report suggests soaring demand from hyperscalers such as Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft will keep prices elevated, but prediction markets increasingly expect supply to catch up over the coming months. The biggest clue? Kalshi's new GPU forward curves, where prices for Nvidia's flagship Blackwell B200 chips are expected to fall as production ramps up. Geopolitics, power grids and export controls could still spoil the party, but traders appear to think the worst of the compute crunch may be behind us.

$725B. That's what Big Tech is spending on AI infrastructure in 2026.

The entire buildout hinges on one variable: the cost of compute. Kalshi chip markets show where it's headed.

We broke down the forces driving the world's hottest commodity:https://t.co/w5vIsy0wvW
— Kalshi Research (@KalshiResearch) July 22, 2026

Kalshi bets big on the Midterms

suswati 4:01 pm

Kalshi has officially kicked off campaign season with the launch of its new Midterms Hub, a one-stop shop for election markets, polling, maps, fundraising data, news and historical results. CEO Tarek Mansour says the goal is to challenge the traditional flow of political information, arguing prediction markets offer a "bottoms-up" alternative to the views of media outlets, pollsters and pundits. Skeptics, of course, remain unconvinced that crowd wisdom always beats conventional analysis. But with the 2026 midterms approaching, Kalshi wants people to price it.

We just launched the Kalshi Midterms Hub. It will house all information about elections in one place: prediction market data, maps, polling, news, fundraising, historical results, and KPOW.

Historically, political news has primarily come from a few established gatekeepers like… https://t.co/dMeTZSxf55
— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) July 22, 2026

CME chief: sports markets are gambling

suswati 3:59 pm

CME Group CEO Terry Duffy didn't mince his words, saying many sports prediction markets are simply "gambling" and warning the issue is likely headed for the US Supreme Court. He added that CME has no interest in getting involved "right now"—a notable stance given the exchange's partnership with FanDuel's parent company, Flutter Entertainment.

CME Group CEO Terry Duffy today:

"A lot of these prediction markets on sports are gambling, and I think that that is going to find its way to the Supreme Court, and that is not something that we want to be a part of participating in right now."
— Dan Bernstein (@dan_bernstein_) July 22, 2026

Mulvaney: A bet is still a bet

suswati 3:57 pm

Former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney has entered the prediction market debate with all the subtlety of a sledgehammer. Speaking at a Council on Foreign Relations panel alongside Kalshi representatives, Mulvaney argued that sports event contracts are, at their core, gambling—regardless of the regulatory label attached. "A sports bet is a sports bet," he said, likening event contracts to traditional wagers on baseball games.

https://twitter.com/EndBackdoorBets/status/2079997351830126718/