Federal prosecutors in Manhattan have accused a U.S. Army soldier of turning secret military knowledge into a lucrative betting scheme, saying he pocketed more than $400,000 by wagering on a classified operation.
According to court filings, Van Dyke was stationed at Fort Bragg and had access to classified planning materials related to the operation, which aimed to capture Maduro. He had signed agreements explicitly barring him from disclosing or using that information.
Bets on Maduro’s capture
Prosecutors say he created a Polymarket account in late December 2025 and placed around 13 bets. Each wager backed outcomes tied to U.S. military involvement in Venezuela and Maduro’s removal from power. In total, authorities say he staked about $33,000, consistently betting “YES” on those scenarios.
Events unfolded quickly. In the early hours of Jan. 3, 2026, U.S. special forces captured Maduro in Caracas. Once the operation became public, the prediction markets resolved in Van Dyke’s favor, bringing him roughly $409,881, according to prosecutors.
Prosecutors: “Clear Insider Trading”
Prediction markets are not a haven for using misappropriated confidential or classified information for personal gain,” Clayton said, calling the alleged conduct a direct breach of federal trust and national security obligations.
Prosecutors argue that Van Dyke’s actions meet the definition of insider trading in substance, if not in traditional market form, because they relied on nonpublic military intelligence to generate profit. They say the trades were not based on analysis or speculation, but on advance knowledge of a real-world classified operation’s timing and outcome.
Alleged attempts to conceal funds
According to court filings, Van Dyke allegedly took steps to obscure the source and movement of his winnings shortly after the operation became public. Prosecutors say he transferred funds through cryptocurrency channels designed to mask transaction history, including routing assets through a foreign-based digital wallet service before moving them into a brokerage account.
Authorities also allege he attempted to delete or deactivate his Polymarket account and modified related crypto account details in an effort to disrupt the financial trail.
Blanche underscored the government’s position on misuse of classified access, stating that service members are entrusted with sensitive intelligence solely to execute missions, not to derive personal financial benefit from it.
Growing Scrutiny of Prediction Markets
The case arrives amid increasing scrutiny of prediction markets and event-based trading platforms. Regulators and lawmakers have raised concerns about insider access to politically or militarily sensitive information being used for profit.
In a separate case, political candidates have also faced penalties tied to trading on election-related contracts, underscoring broader concerns about market integrity.
FBI, DOJ response and potential sentencing
“Today’s announcement makes clear no one is above the law,” Patel said, adding that the FBI would act to protect national security and classified information.
If convicted, Van Dyke faces up to 20 years in prison on the wire fraud count, along with additional penalties on related charges. Prosecutors say sentencing would ultimately be determined by a judge.
Featured image: Wesley Tingey/Unsplash
