The gambling regulator in France is set to ban Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction market that soared in prominence during the U.S. presidential election.
Local media outlet The Big Whale first reported that the National Gaming Authority (ANJ) is currently probing Polymarket’s operations and assessing if it meets French gambling legislation.
The market closed out the race for the White House giving Donald Trump a 99% chance of success, as it recorded $3.5 billion in trading volume over the course of the election.
A notable event during the contest and a catalyst for further scrutiny by the ANJ was when a French trader, identified only as Theo, staked more than $30 million on Trump securing another term in office.
He is said to have pocketed almost $50m in profit from his wager.
It has been reported the ANJ could exercise its power to ban access to the site and block domain names, as well as pressuring outlets that link to Polymarket. Those measures will only go so far, due to the relative ease of penetrating the block, and the setup of the prediction market.
There's now a 30% chance Trump nominates Elon to his cabinet.
Should he? pic.twitter.com/LpD2aGCETl
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) November 6, 2024
No intermediaries or established regulated structure
Polymarket does not require users to verify their identity to get involved on the site, only to link a crypto wallet, but even if the site is blocked in France it would be possible to use a VPN. Polymarket has its headquarters in New York, but its offerings are currently unavailable to Americans via regular means.
As far back as 2021, the site has been under investigation by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which went on to lay out rules for prediction markets to stave off the threat of manipulation risks.
Polymarket has flourished in recent times, especially during this U.S. election season raking in billions in bets, including $294 million on November 5 alone.
The market sets itself apart as unlike conventional betting sites, it operates on blockchain, without intermediaries or an established regulated structure. This is a point of contention for government agencies and bodies like the ANJ.
Polymarket could be in line for a shake-up of its own, if the project decentralizes through the launch of a token, which would impact its control of the betting ‘contracts’ offered on the prediction platform.
Image credit: Via Midjourney
