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As the US presidential election nears a close, with seven results left to go, Trump’s victory odds have surged to 99.6% on Polymarket.
This comes as Trump looks all but certain to have secured a second term in the White House, with the decentralized betting platform Polymarket having its odds consistently in the Republican candidates’ favor.
The business mogul stands just four Electoral College votes away from the 270 that are needed to declare the winner.
While counting is still underway in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada, Trump has already delivered a victory speech and country leaders have congratulated him publicly.
The betting platform has tracked the election throughout, creating a forecast. Polymarket functions similarly to sports betting apps like DraftKings, but allows users to place wagers on a wide range of topics beyond just sports.
Polymarket continues predictions for remaining votes
A month ahead of the election date, on October 11, the forecast had Trump’s chances standing at 55.8% in comparison to Harris’ 43.5%.
While other estimates had the candidates neck-and-neck on Monday (November 4) Polymarket suggested Trump would win with 57.1% of the votes, with Harris only receiving 42.9%.
The blockchain-based prediction site could prove to have been correct the whole time, beating out other key forecasts.
On October 7 when Trump’s odds looked more favorable as they increased by three percentage points on the platform. The catalyst for the surge in the betting market was Trump’s campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. This is when he returned to the scene of the attempted assassination attempt on his life. He was also joined on stage by his close ally Elon Musk who has publicly shared his support for the media personality.
The people of America gave @realDonaldTrump a crystal clear mandate for change tonight
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) November 6, 2024
With other votes still yet to come in, Polymarket predicts Trump will take Michigan with 99% odds, as well as Wisconsin and Nevada. It suggests he will also secure Arizona with 96% to Harris’ 4% chance.
All four states are swing states, with these being too close to call by other predictors over the last few weeks.
Featured Image: AI-generated via Ideogram
