Jupiter Research analyst Michael Gartenberg has some
predictions for 2005. The first 4 are of great interest to me, so I thought I’d list
them here along with some brief comments from moi. Plus at the end of this post, a hint
of what I’ll be up to in 2005.
1. Longhorn is no longer the answer (or even the question). There was too much
Longhorn hype in the past year and not enough details. Look for Microsoft to retreat from
the “It will be fixed/added in Longhorn” mantra and make more attempts to keep the focus
on Windows XP.
If you haven’t already checked it out, my interview with Tim O’Reilly
has some insights on where Microsoft fits into the Web 2.0 world. Choice quote from Tim:
“I just think that [Web-based] software services have a better model. So I think that
Microsoft will continue to dominate on the PC, but the PC is going to be a smaller and
smaller part of the entire business.”
2. PDAs will become passe. Disconnected ones, that is. Over time, the real action will
be moving core PDA functionality, centered on personal information management, to other
devices such as cell phones. This will cause major IT headaches, since few cell phones
are controlled by IT these days.
He’s having a bob each way here – a disconnected anything will become passe in
2005 (not just PDAs). But the point is valid – when it comes to upgrading my Palm PDA,
will I select a “smartphone” device? I probably will, provided it has a decent-sized
screen and I can browse the Web and read eBooks on it.
3. More people will lose their jobs over their weblogs. It’s happened already, and it
will happen again. If you’re posting about your job or employer without consent, you’re
taking a lot of risk with your future.
I’ve been careful not to post anything explicitly about my employer, even though my
day job is relevant to the topics I write about here on R/WW. Sometimes I write about
experiences in the day job – e.g. with the CMS we use – but only in non-specific terms
and I never talk about my employer’s business. Some people are fortunate
to have the support of their employer for their blogging, which is almost a requirement
if you’re blogging about them at all.
4. But more corporations will create official blogs. Corporations have seen the weblog
light, and blogs will become common for business use. Unfortunately, far too many of
these efforts will just be marketing fluff disguised as weblogs.
This is my favourite prediction for 2005! Little bit of news for you – I’ve started up
a business with a blog buddy and we will be launching it in early 2005. So I’m finally
putting my ideas into action. 🙂 Stay tuned for more news about this exciting (for me!)