Trump has won, but what does this mean for markets, crypto, and global politics? From traders to crypto enthusiasts and leaders like Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, everyone is watching closely.
Donald Trump is gearing up to take office as the 47th president on January 6, 2025.
As for crypto, the market is trending upward. Even before Georgia and North Carolina were called in his favor on election night, traders were already making moves in forex, bonds, and crypto, anticipating what’s to come.
US Treasury yields are rising as fears grow that the US deficit could worsen. At the same time, the dollar gains strength, bolstered by Trump’s plans for widespread tariffs on imports. Bitcoin’s price is also on the rise, crossing the $75,000 mark, as Trump’s newfound embrace of crypto fuels optimism across the market.
Crude oil took a dip as worries grew over the US increasing supply globally, echoing Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra. It’s clear that the “Trump trade” is making a powerful comeback.
Keep in mind that presidential elections have historically been good for Bitcoin. In the past three election cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin saw impressive six-month returns of 949%, 131%, and 328%, respectively. With the 2024/25 election cycle ahead, some analysts are predicting Bitcoin could soar to $170,000, potentially making this the biggest post-election rally yet.
the post US Presidential Election average return on $BTC from each cycle?
— cuban 🍂 (@cubantobacco) November 3, 2024
1-month +23%
3-month +105%
6-month +470%
so regardless of the winner of the rat race, the market loves certainty and I don't expect this year to be any different
simply BET MORE pic.twitter.com/4a2NMY9DRB
Trump Media and Technology Group Set to Be a Massive Meme Stock
As portfolios adjust to the new realities of what a protectionist pro-crypto Trump administration will mean, there is a degree of uncertainty.
Even so, there are smart moves to be made now to catch the prevailing wind in your financial sails
First up must be Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), which is up 35.7% in pre-market price action at $33.94. TMTG’s main business is the Truth Social microblogging platform.
Although the fundamentals of the company show it is a loss-making concern (earnings per share is negative at -$0.59), the stock trades like a meme stock, rising and falling in value with the political fortunes of Donald Trump. Those fortunes have taken a decidedly bullish turn. Buy.
Will Trump Support Tesla? The Market Is Betting on It
Elon Musk’s Tesla is another no-brainer. Yes, there is a contradiction evident between Tesla’s carbon-eschewing mission and the climate-change denial of Trump and his dismissal of all things electrical when it comes to autos.
However, Elon Musk may soon be taking up a post in the Federal government as the head of the newly styled Department of Government Efficiency. His influence on Trump is already proven and the bromance was in evidence in Trump’s acceptance speech. Indeed, the two held their very own election night watch party at Mar-a-Lago, with Robert F Kennedy Jr in tow.
Judging by the after-hours price surge in the Tesla stock, the market thinks Trump will start warming to EVs, which means the subsidies will stay; they might even be increased.
However, there is one small fly in the ointment to be aware of, namely the conflict of interest that would require Musk to give up his CEO positions at his multiple companies, including Tesla. Shareholders might not like that.
Still, on balance, his unprecedented proximity to the levers of American power and presidential influence is a value-add for Tesla. The stock is up 13.2% in the US pre-market at $251.4. Buy.
Crypto Takes the Lead in Trump’s Comeback, With Dogecoin Among Top Movers
Musk provides a nice segue into crypto. In case you hadn’t noticed, the acronym of the Department of Government Efficiency is $DOGE, the ticker of the OG meme coin Dogecoin.
As the market digested the increasing likelihood of a Trump victory as the counting proceeded, $DOGE started to rally. At one point, it was up 26%, although at the time of writing, it is now up 17.6% at $0.1918.
Elon Musk’s long association with Dogecoin has a lot to do with its prominence in the sector. This phenomenon can only become more magnified, especially given Trump’s avowed goal of making the US the capital of the crypto world.
Crypto is probably the best play for this stage of the Trump trade. Although it is hard to say at this juncture which of Trump and Elon’s policy utterances will come to fruition, but sacking Gary Gensler from his role as chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission will likely be the first step in introducing a crypto-friendly regulatory framework.
"This election is the most important election of our lifetime. This is no ordinary election. The other side wants to take away your freedom. President Trump must win to preserve the Constitution. He must win to preserve Democracy in America."
— DogeDesigner (@cb_doge) November 5, 2024
一 Elon Musk pic.twitter.com/tnl0t9VVSf
Timo Lehes, the co-founder of Swarm Markets concurs. “Cryptoassets are surging as Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, driven by ebullience in the market as it looks now nearly certain that Donald Trump will return to the White House.
“The logic of this is fairly simple – crypto markets see Trump as much more favorable to the sector than a Harris administration might have been. This comes principally down to the view of how regulators in the US treat crypto. If we look at the last four years of the Biden administration, then this tells you all you need to know about how crypto has been treated by the Democrats.
“Of course, we had the FTX disaster among others, but beyond that, the targeting of the sector has been pointed. The Trump relief rally here is a euphoric response to the potential for this regulatory bullying to now end.”
Lehes also mentions the new taxes Kamala Harris was planning and how that has helped to fuel the relief rally. “There is another element here too, which comes down to taxation. Harris made one of the stranger commitments of the electoral campaign in threatening to tax unrealized gains on assets. Aside from the fact that this is very difficult to do in practice, it would have been very bad for holders of major assets such as BTC.”
Top Crypto Winners in the Trump Trade: Solana, FreeDum Fighters, and More
The crypto winners go well beyond just Bitcoin and Dogecoin. Blockchain platform token Solana has performed a ‘flippening’ of BNB, climbing up the market capitalization table to become the third most valuable crypto asset, excluding stablecoin USDT.
Building up a position in Solana at this point makes a lot of sense. Investors can buy the digital asset directly and hold it in a self-custody wallet.
For those new to crypto, perhaps peering in from a stock market background, there is a new publicly listed Solana holding company called Sol Strategies that can be bought in the OTC market in the US (CYFRF) or on the Toronto Stock Exchange, where it trades under the ticker HODL.
Another interesting opportunity is a meme coin called FreeDum Fighters ($DUM), which is currently in presale. You can buy the coin and stake it on either of two political contenders – MAGATRON or Kamacop 2000. It’s a satirical gamified project inspired by the presidential election.
The $DUM token costs $0.000070 in presale, but the price increases in three days’ time, so it’s worth taking a look now and getting in early. Also, the stake-to-vote system will earn you 274% APY on the tokens deposited into the respective pools for the mechanized political fighters. $DUM can be bought using Ethereum or Solana.
For those considering dipping their toes into other parts of the Trump-inspired meme coin world, both $MAGA and $TRUMP are off around 20% today as traders ‘sell the news’, so let the pullback play out before entering.
Meanwhile, it would be remiss not to highlight two more opportunities presenting themselves in the presale market: Crypto All-Stars ($STARS) and Pepe Unchained ($PEPU).
$PEPU is one of the biggest presales of the year, having raised $25 million for its state-of-the-art Layer 2 ecosystem. The project has just announced a massive new upgrade to the Pepe Unchained ecosystem, coming soon – Pepe’s Pump Pad, where anyone will easily be able to launch their own meme coins.
The new utility feature promises to do for Ethereum what the wildly popular Pump.fun has done for the Solana blockchain.
We're proud to announce a massive new upgrade to the Pepe Unchained Ecosystem.
— Pepe Unchained (@pepe_unchained) November 6, 2024
Pepe's Pump Pad 🐸
Link to the new page on the website here: https://t.co/jz1v0iRppq pic.twitter.com/mBzC9wDnl9
Funds are pouring into Pepe Unchained. One whale ponied up $77k to invest in Pepe Unchained, as can be seen on Etherscan.
Trump’s Push to Make Bitcoin a Reserve Asset Could Transform Crypto Globally
The crypto industry has poured millions of dollars into political lobbying through Political Action Committees such as Fairshake and it has paid off in a big way.
Donald Trump’s appearance at Bitcoin 2024 conference in July yielded his campaign $25 million from crypto industry contributors.
Trump famously launched NFTs but has recently taken a more serious approach to crypto. He launched a cryptocurrency exchange called World Liberty Financial, the native coin of which is WLFI. Subsequently, it has been announced that the plan is for WLFI to be a stablecoin, but the details are scant.
WLFI might be one to leave to one side for now until the lay of the land is clearer. Nevertheless, Trump has made some bold statements about Bitcoin, going so far as to say he would add it to the US government reserves. If that were to come to pass it would be a transformative moment for Bitcoin, lending it the credibility of being a reserve asset.
Whatever the world at large or Democrat voters in the US may think about Trump, he has proven himself to be an astute political operator. And he will soon have the power to establish crypto as an asset class worthy of investment by governments and private investors alike. That’s huge.
