Minnesota lawmakers from both parties are moving ahead with a bill that would outlaw most forms of betting on prediction markets, adding steep criminal penalties for companies and individuals tied to the fast-growing space.
Originally filed on March 17, Senate Bill 4511 targets platforms where people stake money on future outcomes. Sen. John Marty, DFL-Roseville, is leading the push, and the proposal has already cleared its first committee stop this month with more hearings on the way.
The bill describes a “prediction market” as “a system that allows consumers to place a wager on the future outcome of a specified event that is not determined or affected by the performance of the parties to the contract.”
The list spans sports and esports contests, elections, court rulings, and weather, along with major public developments such as “war, state or national emergencies, natural or human-made disasters, mass shootings, acts of terrorism, or public health crises.”
Sen. Marty framed the bill as a clarification of existing law, writing on Bluesky: “Prediction markets are used for illegal gambling in MN. I’m pleased my legislation, SF 4511, to clarify that this is illegal, passed the Senate Judiciary Comm. with strong bipartisan support last week!”
What the Minnesota prediction market bill would do
The proposal would make it a felony to operate or support a prediction market in Minnesota. Anyone who “create[s] a prediction market” or “operate[s], manage[s], or make[s] available a platform or system that allows consumers to make wagers” could face criminal charges.
The measure also reaches into nearly every layer of the industry, banning activities like setting odds, handling funds, listing events, supplying settlement data, or promoting these platforms through advertising.
At the same time, lawmakers preserve existing carveouts. The bill reiterates that certain activities “are not bets,” including the state lottery, licensed charitable gambling, pari-mutuel horse racing wagers, and some informal social betting.
Regulators would also gain stronger enforcement tools. The state’s director of alcohol and gambling enforcement could issue cease-and-desist orders against suspected violations. If recipients ignore those orders or continue processing payments tied to banned activity, they could face felony charges.
The North Star State’s effort comes as other states and federal regulators grapple with similar questions. Tennessee lawmakers recently advanced a bill targeting manipulation in prediction markets with felony penalties, while Kentucky is weighing gambling changes that include rules affecting sports-related prediction platforms and raising the betting age to 21.
At the federal level, legal fights involving the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could eventually reach the Supreme Court.
The Minnesota bill, backed by four Democrats and one Republican, would take effect Aug. 1, 2026, if approved, applying to offenses committed on or after that date.
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