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You may have heard the term ‘betting system’ if you regularly wager at betting sites and sportsbooks. After all, this can incorporate any number of rules and methodologies to help select your bets. These systems can form part of a much broader betting strategy, too.
Of course, sports betting systems can be hard to understand and implement. Formulating the one that works for you is also complicated. So, let’s take a closer look at betting systems and how they work in the realm of sports wagering!
What is a Betting System?
A quick Google search of the sports betting term ‘betting system’ will bring up plenty of articles that focus on strategy. However, while there’s a significant crossover between sports betting systems and betting strategies (we’ll touch more on this later in the guide), they’re also separate entities that need to be treated as such.
A betting system describes a set of predetermined rules and processes that precisely define how you make wagering selections. Whether picking the winner of the next NFL regular season or betting on specific game weeks and matches, your system will enable you to make the best value selections and wager at optimal odds.
Interestingly, different betting methods are more suited to specific sports, while others may be more or less viable depending on your appetite for risk. So, it’s essential to understand specific betting systems in detail before you choose one that’s most likely to work for you, and you start placing wagers at the best sports betting sites.
How Betting Systems Work
As sports betting involves results influenced by unpredictable variables, you have no deterministic edge as a bettor. Sportsbooks actively use betting systems to help set more accurate and enticing odds. They also factor in a commission of around 10% into their odds calculation. This creates a de facto edge on every wager they accept.
So, it makes sense that creating your own sports betting systems that work can help to counter this edge and optimize your own chances of winning. Specific systems may also focus on minimizing losses or maximizing returns, depending on your risk appetite and preferred wagering strategy. We’ll use the classic ‘Martingale’ system for our example. This system works as an effective football betting system.
The Martingale system aims to maximize each win’s value. Typically, you’ll double your unit bet after every loss. Conversely, bettors will wager their base stake immediately after a win. In sports betting, you’ll also target even matchups where the implied probability of at least two outcomes is close to 50%.
So, you may decide to bet on the outcome of a clash between the Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers in the NBA. The Lakers are priced at +155, implying a 39.3% probability of a home win. The Clippers are priced at -155 and have a 60.7% chance of prevailing. Let’s say you choose to back the underdogs with a unit bet of $5. If this wager is unsuccessful, you’ll target a match with similar odds, increasing your stake to $10. You’ll continue this until one of your selections wins. After that win, you’ll return to wagering a single unit bet.
The goal is to cover successive losses with a relatively sizable win. It’s a betting system that’s focused solely on maximizing returns.
Strategy vs. System: What’s the Difference?
As we’ve already touched on, there are prominent areas of crossover between the best sports betting systems and sports betting methods. These terms are generally used interchangeably, but this ignores the subtle differences that separate these two entities.
In simple terms, a sports betting system describes a finite number of rules and methodologies that help you to research and place bets. A betting system will also influence how you set and scale your unit bet over time and in response to losing or winning wagers.
Matched betting is an example of a popular betting strategy and one that requires you to target specific bets with two similarly priced outcomes. It also dictates the use of free bets as you look to cover all potential match outcomes while guaranteeing at least a nominal profit.
As for sports betting strategies, they describe a much wider and overarching approach to sports wagering. Because of this, your strategy may incorporate one or more betting systems, which help you to wager more methodically and either minimize the risk of loss or optimize potential returns.
Are Betting Systems Legal?
Sports betting systems are completely and unequivocally legal. No federal or state laws exist to prohibit examples such as matched betting or progressive wagering.
However, some betting systems may be discouraged or frowned upon in some quarters. Take the aforementioned Martingale System, which doubles your unit bet with every successive loss. While the goal here is to maximize the value of each win, it requires you to exhaust your bankroll relatively quickly and effectively chase losses aggressively.
Of course, loss-chasing (either emotive or otherwise) is widely discouraged in sports betting, as it can make you wager outside your means and trigger mounting debts. So, despite its popularity (especially among well-resourced bettors and high rollers), the Martingale System is one of the most criticized betting techniques in existence.
Other, less popular, betting systems are also lacking in merit and arguably a little one-dimensional. Take backing the second favorite in horse races, for example, which theoretically enables you to wager on relatively fancied runners at superior odds.
However, it’s never wise to pick winners based on just one factor or trend, even if it does achieve minimal success from time to time. Ideally, you should prioritize more in-depth and thoughtful betting systems that take a broader selection of factors into account.
Why are Betting Systems Important?
We’ll talk more about the best and most effective sports betting systems below, but it’s important to first reinforce the importance of using certain methodologies and betting theory to introduce order into your gambling activity and effectively counter the prevailing house edge. Here are some factors in favor of developing a viable betting system:
- Gain a Competitive Advantage: While there’s no such thing as a gambling system that never loses, it’s important to remember that sportsbooks use commission and their unique betting systems to generate a house edge. So, it’s important to negate this edge and use sports betting systems to gain your own competitive advantage.
- Create Opportunities for Guaranteed Profits: With systems like matched betting, successful execution can also unlock guaranteed (albeit nominal) profits. For example, you could lay a back bet on the Lakers to beat the Clippers in the NBA, at identical odds through a dedicated betting exchange. By using one or more free bets, you can secure at least some level of profit in some instances.
- Set Optimal Stake Amounts: When you use systems such as the Kelly Criterion, you can use a mathematical formula to establish the optimal amount of money to commit to each wager. This is based on the live odds of your chosen outcome and the implied probability values on a particular match, while it ultimately recommends a percentage of your bankroll that you should consider wagering. We’ll touch more on this later in the guide, too.
Betting System Bankroll Management
Bankroll management is one of the most critical elements of successful betting, whether you’re a casual punter or a professional.
Disciplined bankroll management prevents you from excessive losses, absorbs variance, and reduces emotional decision-making. It’s a crucial part of being successful in the long term and should not be underestimated.
Betting Systems You Should Learn
Now it’s time to explore the best and most effective sports betting systems in a little more detail. Remember, we’ve already covered the controversial but high-profile Martingale system, so here are some alternatives that are worth considering!
Fibonacci System
The Fibonacci system offers mathematical sports betting and has similarities with the Martingale system. While it also encourages you to increase your bet size whenever you lose a wager, the scale at which you raise your unit bet is a little more gradual. More specifically, this system requires your next bet to be determined by adding your two previous stakes together.
Paroli System
Unlike ‘negative progression’ betting systems like Fibonacci and Martingale, the Paroli system requires you to double your wager after each win until three successive triumphs are achieved.
The idea is to capitalize on wins and minimize the risk of losing money from your original bankroll. It’s therefore favored by risk-averse or less experienced bettors across a broad range of sports.
Labouchere System
The Labouchere System is one of the most complicated sports betting techniques, as it involves creating a bespoke sequence of numbers that should ideally equate to your desired level of profit.
Unit bets are determined by the total sum of the first and last numbers in the sequence, while the system offers flexibility by allowing you to set your own digits and adjust them over time.
If your bet is successful, remove the first and last number from the sequence (1 and 3 in this instance). If you lose, you’ll be required to add the amount staked to the end of the sequence (4), with this sequence continuing until you win.
Labouchere Reverse System
As the name suggests, the ‘Labouchere Reverse System’ is a progressive iteration of the classic alternative. You’ll simply invert the rules and bear the bets on the sequence following losses, before adding the last stake amount played following a win.
D’Alembert System
The D’Alembert System is known as quite a conservative betting system, which sees you increase your wager size by a single unit bet after each loss. You’ll also decrease your stake by one unit bet after a win, and it’s driven by a balanced approach that’s incredibly easy to understand.
Kelly Criterion
The ‘Kelly Criterion’ model is a popular betting system that calculates the optimal amount of cash to commit to each individual wager using a specific formula. This method calculates an optimal stake amount based on the odds and implied probability associated with each match or selection.
The Unit Betting System
This is an incredibly straightforward and consistent technique. Unit Betting is based on staking your unit bet value in variable increments depending on the specific market or wager in question.
Your unit bet should be expressed as a percentage of your bankroll, based on its total size and how you intend to deploy this over a specific timeframe or event.
Tips for Incorporating Betting Systems
Regardless of your preferred betting system, it’s important to incorporate this successfully and in full as part of a wider wagering strategy. Here are some universal tips that can be applied regardless of how you deploy your bankroll.
- Start With a Solid Bankroll: All sports betting systems require you to start from a solid foundation. That solid base must include a carefully calculated and managed bankroll. This should be an amount that you can comfortably afford to lose. Those boundaries must be established to cover a predetermined period.
- Understand Your Risk Appetite: Each betting system has its own approach to managing risk and losses. Positive and negative progression systems are also different in this regard. So, not only do you need to understand the mechanisms of each betting system, but you should also comprehend how this meshes with your own risk profile.
- Combine Different Betting Systems Where Possible: It’s possible to combine multiple betting systems and techniques into a single wagering strategy. This is something you should consider. Systems like the Kelly Criterion have universal merit and help you calculate optimal stake amounts for each bet. This certainly works well in combination with a flat or unit betting system.
- Determine Which Systems Suit Specific Sports: Due to the differences between betting systems, each has its unique pros and cons. Alternative systems may also be particularly suited to certain sports. Specific systems are based on the level of skill involved in picking winners and the available wagering requirements. It’s important to understand this to identify the best system for you!
The Betting Markets for Different Betting Systems
If you decide to pick specific betting systems to suit individual sports, how can you make selections? Here’s our take on the best betting systems for individual sporting events and markets!
NBA Betting System
The NBA schedule is hectic, with franchises playing 82 matches during the regular season. This puts teams at the mercy of injuries and load management demands. With all that strain, it can make it hard for sides to string together consecutive wins.
This is especially true when backing teams who won by a close margin in their last time out. Between 2018 and 2023, such teams had a win-loss record of 184-94. However, they were 112-157-9 against the spread (ATS) in the following game when favored again.
This may also reflect the fact that sides are overvalued after a close win. Either way, it suggests that any kind of progressive betting system may be flawed here. Instead, you should consider unit betting when wagering on the NBA.
MLB Betting System
Over/under betting is particularly popular in baseball and MLB, especially in matchups featuring big wagering lines (such as + or – 7.5 runs). The presence of such lines means that sportsbooks are expecting high-scoring games. This favors betting underdogs and may help to create value in match wagering.
Underdog betting can be particularly fruitful during April when sportsbooks are still calibrating their odds and gauging the form of competing sides. Interestingly, the last ten years of MLB action have seen underdogs go 1,487 – 1,866, and while this equates to a win percentage of just 44.43%, you can improve this further by targeting potentially high-scoring games on new sportsbooks, which tend to have great incentives if setting up a new account.
You can also apply the D’Alembert System when betting on underdogs in the MLB. This enables you to progress your stake and maximize the value of underdog wins.
NFL Betting System
Interestingly, backing selected underdogs can also prove fruitful in NFL betting, although in this instance, it requires you to focus on lower-scoring games. For example, underdogs who scored less than (or equal to) 42 points are 205-150-10 (57.7%) since 2018.
In divisional matchups, underdogs with 42 or fewer points scored have won 59.6% of the time ATS. Those dogs produced a cumulative record of 84-57-4. So, you can target matches based on the published over/under odds and betting lines, before selecting underdogs and setting your stake.
Given historical performance and the right execution, this betting system also calls for a progressive approach. In this case, the D’Alembert or Labouchere systems may offer significant value. But this also depends on your appetite for risk and your level of experience in sports betting.
NHL Betting System
Puck lines have long been an NHL betting system favorite, but there are plenty of other markets that can be used for long-term profits.
Period betting, in particular, is one that we like. First-period betting is a great tool if you can find matchups that feature high-pace teams (e.g., Oilers, Panthers, Sabres) and/or high-danger chance creators early on.
You may want to apply your filters to such a system, but these matchups can provide great opportunities for an Over 1.5 Puck Line bet.
Whatever markets you choose for your NHL bets, make sure you keep track of your closing line value (CLV) because long-term profitability is very much tied to beating the line.
Gavin BeechiGaming Expert
Golf Betting System
Golf is one of the most popular sports to focus on markets away from outright tournament winners, especially in big events like the Majors. While the Win market is where the big odds are, savvy punters look for opportunities in head-to-head markets, Top 10/20 finish markets, and Top Country Player markets.
Top Country Player odds are particularly appealing when there are reasons to oppose a player that sits near the top of that market. That scenario means there is value to be had in betting at least one other player against him.
Head-to-head odds are also popular where one player has a game that suits a particular course, e.g., long hitters at Torrey Pines, good putters at Pebble Beach. If that player is up against a player whose game is better suited elsewhere, then bets become possible if the odds are appealing enough.
Horse Racing Betting System
In horse racing, most people focus on the ‘win’ element, so any selection must win the race. However, there are several options nowadays that could prove useful to anyone wanting to build a profitable horse racing betting system.
These options include place only odds, Horse A vs Horse B odds, each-way odds, and laying of horses (win and/or place) on exchanges.
So, if you think a horse will get loose on the lead and is sure to run a big race, but you are worried about whether it’s classy enough to win, you have options. You could bet it each-way, in the place market, or bet it to beat another horse, which you don’t believe will be suited by the way that race is going to be run.
What is Progressive Betting?
We’ve already spoken extensively about progressive betting, which describes a system whereby you increase your unit bet after each wager. How you increase your unit bet will vary from one system to another, with ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ progressive systems available. These can be broken down as follows:
- Positive Progression Systems: With positive progression systems, you’ll increase your unit bet after each win. Popular examples include the Labouchere Reverse and Paroli Systems. These entities tend to be more preoccupied with minimizing losses and conservative bankroll management.
- Negative Progression Systems: With this type of betting system, you’ll increase your unit bet value with each loss. The Martingale and Fibonacci systems are common negative progression examples, while they’re focused on maximizing the value of individual wins. However, there are more conservative negative progression systems in play, including the D’Alembert System.
Responsible Gambling
Even if you are on a roll with a specific betting system, it is important to always keep your eye on the bigger picture and make sure you’re not betting outside of your financial means. Responsible gambling is the best betting system to utilize when wagering on sports. But if your betting habits become overwhelming and are beginning to affect your life and those around you, know that help is just a click away.
There are several resources dedicated to helping problem gamblers and their families, such as:
Our Final Thoughts on Betting Systems
As you can see, there are plenty of sports betting systems available when gambling online. These vary between positive and negative progression systems, while they also have different levels of complexity and associated risk. Some are also frowned upon, with examples like the Martingale system encouraging aggressive loss chasing over time.
Still, you need to compare and review different betting systems in detail. That means measuring them against the size of your bankroll, appetite for risk, and core objectives when wagering on sport. You should also identify a betting system that suits your preferred sports and wager types.
