Home A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, could hit Earth in 2032

A newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, could hit Earth in 2032

A new asteroid has been spotted, with astronomers closely monitoring it as it could hit Earth in 2032.

On Wednesday (January 29) the European Space Agency (ESA) announced it is looking into the recently discovered asteroid which has been called 2024 YR4.

It was first discovered just over a month ago, on December 27, at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile.

This caused the automated asteroid warning systems to determine that it had a very small chance of potentially impacting Earth on 22 December 2032. The object is estimated to measure between 40m and 100m wide, with an impact of this size able to cause severe damage to a local region.

After its discovery, it soared to the top of ESA’s asteroid risk list, with astronomers paying close attention to it since early January. This includes carrying out priority follow-up observations using telescopes around the world and looking at data to improve current understandings of its size and trajectory.

Is Asteroid 2024 YR4 expected to hit Earth?

According to the ESA, “As of 29 January 2025, ESA estimates that the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 may impact Earth on 22 December 2032 is 1.2%.”

The object has been rated as a level three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale which suggests it merits attention by astronomers. It’s level five to seven that an asteroid is classed as ‘threatening,’ with levels eight to ten being ‘certain collisions.’

While it has an almost 99% chance of safely passing Earth on 22 December 2023, a possible impact cannot yet be entirely ruled out. It’s also too early to determine where exactly on Earth a potential impact could occur.

As the asteroid has an impact probability higher than 1% at a point in time within the next 50 years, it meets the criteria to activate the two UN-endorsed reaction groups: the International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group.

With this in mind, further analysis of impact consequences and the planning of any necessary mitigation measures are being taken.

Featured Image: AI-generated via Ideogram

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Sophie Atkinson
Tech Journalist

Sophie Atkinson is a UK-based journalist and content writer, as well as a founder of a content agency which focuses on storytelling through social media marketing. She kicked off her career with a Print Futures Award which champions young talent working in print, paper and publishing. Heading straight into a regional newsroom, after graduating with a BA (Hons) degree in Journalism, Sophie started by working for Reach PLC. Now, with five years experience in journalism and many more in content marketing, Sophie works as a freelance writer and marketer. Her areas of specialty span a wide range, including technology, business,…

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