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Home White House betting controversy, Kalshi legal fight, 44 AGs oppose CFTC proposal, today in prediction market news LIVE

White House betting controversy, Kalshi legal fight, 44 AGs oppose CFTC proposal, today in prediction market news LIVE

White House teleprompter displays speech text amid controversy over alleged Trump-linked prediction market betting.

Today in prediction market news, we’re following the biggest developments shaping the industry, including fresh legal setbacks for Kalshi in its fight with New York regulators, a White House official’s response to allegations involving prediction market bets tied to President Trump, and a coordinated push by 44 state attorneys general urging the CFTC to reject proposed prediction market rules.

We’ll also cover Minnesota’s latest actions on prediction markets, including a new executive order on insider betting and court developments clarifying the state’s enforcement authority, as well as ProphetX’s $35 million funding round, the launch of a prediction market-focused media company, regulatory updates, and other breaking prediction market news throughout the day.

Live Updated 20 minutes ago

States already planning their next fight with the CFTC

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The CFTC hasn't even finalized its sports event contract rules, and lawyers are already warming up for the sequel. Gaming attorney Daniel Wallach highlighted language from New York's court filing suggesting states are prepared to challenge any final rule in federal court, arguing the agency has exceeded its statutory authority and acted "arbitrarily and capriciously" under the Administrative Procedure Act. Translation: even if the CFTC gets its rule over the finish line, don't expect anyone to start celebrating just yet. 

Underdog appears to be building prediction market parlays

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A newly spotted self-certification filing by Aristotle Exchange (Underdog's CFTC-regulated exchange) appears to describe a contract that pays out only if all of several previously certified event contracts occur—in other words, something that looks remarkably like a parlay. The filing doesn't use the word "parlay," but the structure is hard to miss.

The footnote that could keep Kalshi's Minnesota headache alive

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Never skip the footnotes—especially when they're written by a federal judge. Gaming attorney Daniel Wallach has highlighted a key passage in Minnesota's ruling that could prove almost as important as the decision itself. While the court blocked enforcement of Minnesota's prediction market law against Kalshi, it went out of its way to note that the case does not address the state's existing sports betting prohibitions. In other words, Minnesota may have lost one legal argument but could still have another in its locker. 

Walz says state secrets aren't betting tips

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Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has decided that if you're paid by the state, your inside knowledge shouldn't double as a side hustle. A new executive order bars state employees from using confidential government information to trade on prediction markets, whether they're betting on elections, court cases or government decisions. 

Kalshi's Hail Mary pass doesn't impress New York judge

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Kalshi asked the court for an emergency lifeline. The court politely declined. A federal judge has denied the company's request for an injunction pending appeal, ruling that Kalshi failed to meet the even higher legal standard required after already losing its bid for a preliminary injunction. In essence, the court's message was: "We've heard these arguments before." 


Meanwhile, New York has filed its opposition in the Second Circuit, urging the appeals court to reach the same conclusion. 

NCLGS wants states to keep the whistle on prediction markets

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The "please stop calling it not-gambling" coalition has gained another member. The National Council of Legislators from Gaming States (NCLGS) has unanimously approved a resolution urging Congress and federal regulators to preserve state and tribal authority over prediction markets, arguing that sports event contracts shouldn't sidestep the rules governing licensed gambling. 

Forty-four attorneys general just crashed the CFTC's party

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The comment period on the CFTC's proposed prediction market rules is ending exactly as you'd expect: with 44 state attorneys general arriving fashionably late carrying one very large objection. In a joint letter, the bipartisan coalition argues the proposal would hand federally regulated prediction markets an unfair advantage over state-regulated sportsbooks while undermining long-standing state authority over gambling. The message is less "we have some suggested edits" and more "absolutely not." 

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Suswati Basu
News Editor

Suswati Basu is a multilingual, award-winning editor and the founder of the intersectional literature channel, How To Be Books. She was shortlisted for the Guardian Mary Stott Prize and longlisted for the Guardian International Development Journalism Award. With 18 years of experience in the media industry, Suswati has held significant roles such as head of audience and deputy editor for NationalWorld news, digital editor for Channel 4 News and ITV News. She has also contributed to the Guardian and received training at the BBC. As an audience, trends, and SEO specialist, she has participated in panel events alongside Google. Her…

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Tim Walz speaks at a campaign rally after signing Minnesota executive order restricting state employees from using confidential information on prediction market platforms.
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Walz orders ethics clampdown targeting state employees using prediction market information
Suswati Basu2 hours

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has signed an executive order barring state employees from using confidential or nonpublic government information to participate in prediction markets, saying the measure is designed to...

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