Kalshi’s legal battles intensify, Google prohibits extensions, Polymarket pushes US expansion, today in prediction market news LIVE

Google is making life a little harder for prediction market extensions. The company has updated its Chrome Web Store policies to prohibit extensions that facilitate real-money trading on prediction markets, with enforcement set to begin on August 1, 2026. The changes are part of a general privacy and user protection overhaul, but they could have significant implications for developers building browser tools around platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. 

ALERT : Google is banning Prediction Market extensions from their stores 🚨

I counted >50 projects at risk of being discontinued (from @PredMarketWiki respository)

Including some big names like @Poly_Helper

The ban will take effect on August 1st, if we don't find a way to… pic.twitter.com/k5eIflcxqs

— Quant Chad (@Autonomous_Chad) July 9, 2026

Prediction markets are supposed to reward good forecasting, but a new report argues the biggest winners may simply be the most sophisticated traders. 

The Roosevelt Institute claims retail users on Kalshi have collectively lost an estimated $583.5 million since the platform launched in 2021, with professional traders capturing the lion's share of profits. The think tank argues prediction markets can leave everyday users at a disadvantage because they're often trading against firms armed with better data, automation, and market-making strategies.

Kalshi has not publicly responded to the report, but it's likely to fuel the already-heated debate over whether prediction markets look more like investing or gambling. 

Prediction markets may look like a level playing field, but the data tells a vastly different story.

Thanks to @MorePerfectUS for featuring our research, courtesy of @BradleySLipton and Toyosi Odusola!
Watch below 📹⬇️ https://t.co/pj0nH4w8Jd

— Roosevelt Institute (@rooseveltinst) July 7, 2026

Just when Kalshi's legal team thought the inbox might stay quiet for a few hours, along comes another lawsuit. 

This time, it's a proposed class action alleging the prediction market operator embedded dozens of third-party tracking tools that shared users' browsing and trading activity with companies including Meta, LinkedIn, and TikTok without proper consent. Kalshi denies wrongdoing, and the allegations have yet to be tested in court, but the case adds another front to the company's growing legal docket. 

Here's what the lawsuit claims, why it matters, and what it could mean for prediction market platforms.

#Kalshi faces privacy class action over alleged tracking of users’ trading activity - https://t.co/1zWMPXHe4o @RWW

— Suswati Basu (@suswatibasu) July 10, 2026

Good afternoon, welcome to today's live blog. Another day, another reminder that prediction markets can't seem to stay out of the legal headlines. Arizona has joined the growing conversation over insider trading in event contracts, with Governor Katie Hobbs signing an executive order banning state employees from using non-public information to trade on prediction markets. 

It's a move that treats event contracts a lot more like financial markets than sportsbooks, even as the broader debate over what prediction markets actually are continues in courts, statehouses, and regulatory offices. We broke down what the order does, why it matters, and whether other states could soon follow Arizona's lead.