Bettors on Polymarket have predicted that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could resign as soon as this week. According to odds on the decentralized betting platform, there is an 85% chance that Trudeau will resign by Friday (Jan. 10) at the time of writing. While 98% of bettors on another contract, with a volume of more than $267,000, predict that he will leave his position by April.
It's looking increasingly likely that Justin Trudeau is on his way out.
There's a 92% chance Conservative Pierre Poilievre will succeed him. pic.twitter.com/mR74tz6Mlh
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) December 30, 2024
The bets have been rolling in after two of Canada’s biggest newspapers dropped competing scoops over the weekend, hinting that Trudeau’s political career might soon be coming to an end. The Toronto Star reports that his resignation could happen as early as Monday, while the Globe and Mail, which broke the story first, says the announcement is expected before the national Liberal Party caucus meeting on Wednesday (Jan. 8).
Trudeau reportedly wants to announce his resignation before the meeting to avoid the appearance of being pushed out by his party’s lawmakers, many of whom have called for his departure both publicly and privately. However, Trudeau, who has been the leader of the Liberal Party for 11 years and prime minister for nine, has kept a low profile throughout the holiday season. He is grappling with a growing list of challenges, including Donald Trump’s tariff threats, the resignation of key allies, and plummeting opinion poll numbers.
Could Polymarket predict Trudeau’s resignation?
The blockchain-based prediction platform leaned towards a Trump victory for most of the US election, even when competing platforms were not as decisive, and Polymarket’s core user base of political punters is still as keyed in as ever. Consequently, there is speculation that Polymarket could accurately predict if and when Trudeau’s resigns.
The Block reported that the platform’s cumulative trading volume has exceeded $9 billion, with a record-breaking $2.63 billion traded in November alone. Despite this, ReadWrite reported that France is considering banning the site as it evaluates whether it complies with the country’s gambling legislation.
Featured image: Justin Trudeau – Prime Minister of Canada via Wikimedia / Canva
