The prediction markets are working in overdrive, as the political landscape is aflame. While there are bets on a plethora of war-related outcomes, two of the biggest bets on the platforms surround the New York mayoral race.
On June 24, voters will decide on who becomes the Democratic nominee for the race, which is being fought between five candidates. The current favorite, Andrew Cuomo, has a dark cloud over him somewhat after being previously accused of sexual harassment. These reportedly caused him to resign from his position as Governor of New York after a 10-year stint.
Polymarket and Kalshi host millions in bets for NYC mayoral race
Polymarket currently has a $31,519,298 volume behind it, with nearly 1600 comments discussing it. One of the top holders for Andrew Cuomo to win has 188,490 “contracts” bought, valued at $153,619.55. Comparatively, the top holder for No, has a value of $9,715.69.
One user has set themselves up to back Zohran Mamdani, the second favorite to win, due to his more progressive attitude and lack of ongoing court cases. This user’s holdings on that bet currently stand at $31,012.09.
Kalshi has a lot less money behind it, but is still tracking a $5.29 million volume.
Brad Lander sees tick up on prediction market after ICE arrest
Other candidates like Adrienne Adams and Scott Stringer are listed as having a less than 1% chance on Kalshi, with singular cent bets to be made. One notable lower-end candidate, Brad Lander, saw a small jump on both platforms after yesterday’s news that he’d been detained by ICE as he tried to protect and escort those involved in immigration hearings from ICE.
When asked about his reaction to other mayoral candidates coming out to support him while he was arrested, Lander, the NYC Comptroller, said:
“Was one of them Andrew Cuomo?”
When he was told no, he joked:
“Imagine that?”
The race is ultimately going to come down between Cuomo and Mamdani, one of which will then have to face the Republican nominee and current mayor, going under Independent, Eric Adams. Adams has been lambasted during his time as mayor, and has been investigated by law enforcement, with phones seized, and is awaiting trial in the NY Supreme Court.
