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If you’re looking to create a successful and sustainable tennis betting strategy and need some advice, this guide should be really helpful.
For many, betting on tennis strategy revolves around the Grand Slam events, and with tour events taking place throughout the year around the world, there are constant opportunities to make the game pay.
In this tennis betting guide, we’ll cover the events and the betting markets that you can utilize to your benefit. We’ll also highlight which key statistics/data points you should focus on to make your tennis bets more profitable in the long term.
How Does Tennis Betting Work?
Betting on tennis throws up unique challenges for fans. Firstly, games and tournaments are played on three different surfaces: namely, clay, grass, and hard courts. Each surface has different characteristics and demands specific skill sets, so some players may excel on some and struggle on others.
The great Rafal Nadal had a remarkable 91.2% on clay, and the imperious Roger Federer, an 8-time Wimbledon champion, ended his career with an 86.9% win rate on grass. Of the modern-day players, Carlos Alcaraz is the best-performing clay player with a win percentage of 82% while Novak Djokovic is hot on the heels of Federer on grass with an 85.8% strike-rate. There is a chance that he surpasses Federer’s grass win percentage despite his advancing years.
Matches can also vary in length from one tournament to another, from best-of-three to best-of-five encounters. You can also access many live betting opportunities as a tennis fan, with points contested and scored at incredibly short intervals. Here’s a three-step process that can help inform your tennis bets!
- Choose your tournament – You’ll find the most detailed coverage, stats, and betting markets at the four Grand Slams (the Australian Open, the French Open, Wimbledon, and the US Open). However, Masters 1000 events and the end-of-season ATP finals are also televised and widely covered online. Prioritizing these tournaments will maximize your potential returns.
- Choose your match – You can then target individual matches, based on your broad betting strategy and appetite for risk. You may choose to back favorites aggressively or engage in spread betting, for example. You can also identify underdogs who have the potential to win games at enhanced odds.
- Choose your bet type – You can also drill down into individual betting markets at this stage. Interestingly, money lines are particularly popular in tennis betting, as all matches deliver decisive outcomes and the draw is eliminated as a potential outcome. So, you’ll have a better chance of winning when backing one player to beat another.
Top 5 Tennis Betting Strategies Explained
Now we’re going to take a closer look at what we believe to be five of the most effective tennis betting strategies. Such strategies can help you to identify and create profitable bets across different tournament types, too. We also have a refresher guide on sports betting terminology if you feel you need to learn the latest jargon. Here are some tennis betting systems to consider before wagering your hard-earned cash!
#1 – Surface Analysis
Surface records are an integral part of any tennis betting strategy. Elite players like Novak Djokovic or Carlos Alcaraz can perform optimally on all surfaces, but as you go down the pyramid, there will be players who have strikingly different records on each surface.
It’s these players that can provide you with betting opportunities, especially in a match-up with a player who excels on that surface. For example, Norwegian player Casper Ruud has a 71% win record on clay, but when he plays on grass, his record plunges to just 40%. This means that if he meets a player of similar ability to him on grass, then he’s more likely to lose than win.
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#2 – Match-Up Style Analysis
Certain style match-ups can provide betting angles. For example, left-handed players tend to have an advantage when their opponent has a weak or even defensive backhand. On clay, baseliners have an edge over serve and volley players, but on grass, the advantage flips to the serve and volleyers.
#3 – Lower Level Tournament Underdogs
Tennis tournaments exist at different levels, even within the main ATP Tour. Here, you’ll find Grand Slams, Masters 1000, ATP 500, and ATP 250. The latter events tend to be discounted by the highest-ranked players, who may either avoid them completely or only participate to secure a generous appearance fee.
Such tournaments allow you to back selected underdogs at enhanced odds, both in outright and match betting markets. Take the ATP Auckland Open, for example, which is an ATP 250 event. This is held annually and has seen unseeded players win in each of the last four iterations.
Focusing on the ATP Tour and 250 events is recommended here, due to their nature and the coverage they receive. However, you can also use sites such as CoreTennis.net to target Challenger Tour statistics and identify potential value picks ahead of specific tournaments.
To provide some context, ITF player Jules Marie offered particular value to defeat fifth seed Nicolas Moreno de Alboran in the recent Villena Open on the Challenger Tour. While de Alboran is ranked higher, Marie is a clay court specialist whose ranking peaked at 245 in 2023. He’s currently ranked 288 in the world and defeated the seasoned Benoît Paire in the round of 32.
- Tip 1 – While targeting Challenger and ITF Tour matches can be rewarding, such tournaments aren’t widely covered online. So, you may be better served by targeting ATP 250 Tour events when backing underdogs.
- Tip 2 – Try to focus on form or pedigree when picking viable underdogs. More specifically, look for previously high-ranked players who are making a successful return from injury and aiming to improve their ranking. Alternatively, seek in-form competitors who have dramatically improved their ranking in recent times.
- Tip 3 – To identify value bets as your core tennis betting strategy, it’s important to calculate ‘expected value’. This can be done using a mathematical formula that features published odds and implied probability values. If the value generated is positive, the betting line’s potential profit outweighs the risk of loss.
#4 – Rising Stars vs Journeymen….or Women
When answering the question “How does tennis betting work?”, it’s important to understand the relationship that exists between the ATP and Challenger Tours. More specifically, young players will start out on the Challenger Tour before becoming ATP regulars, with Carlos Alcaraz having recently made this transition seamlessly.
The same trend occurs on the WTP Tour, and it’s a good idea to identify the best up-and-coming stars as they enter larger-scale events. One key Challenger tournament to look out for is the Next Gen ATP Finals, which Alcaraz himself won in 2021 before winning his first Grand Slam at the US Open the following year.
When young Challenger starlets and Next Gen champs join the ATP Tour, they may take on seasoned but fading journeymen as underdogs. However, they may represent significant value picks in some instances, depending on other factors such as form and the surface in question.
#5 – Tournament Draw Bias – Dutch Both Sides
When betting on tennis Grand Slams, it’s important to note that tournament draws are structured to separate the top seeds. For example, if the current ATP rankings remained unchanged before the 2025 Australian Open, Carlos Alcaraz (2) and Novak Djokovic (4) would be in different halves of the draw and not scheduled to meet until the final.
This creates an opportunity to engage in ‘dutching’ as your primary tennis sports betting strategy. This means picking two (or more) potential winners from the field while looking to guarantee at least a nominal profit so long as one of your selections prevails. By picking players in different sections of the draw, you can optimize your chances of winning incrementally.
Using the 2025 Australian Open as an example, you could take a $100 bankroll and stake $60 on favorite Novak Djokovic winning at +175. Wager the remaining $40 on second seed Alcaraz prevailing at +200. If the Serbian wins, you’ll win $105 and bank a total return of $165 (including your stake).
If Alcaraz triumphs, you’ll earn $80 in profit and bank a total return of $120, including your initial unit bet on the Spaniard. Either way, you’re guaranteed a nominal profit, while the implied probability of Djokovic or Alcaraz winning is a healthy 69.7%. This type of strategy can be used as part of your overall bankroll management.
What Are the Best Tennis Bets?
If you’re asked, “How do you bet on tennis?”, the most important facet of your answer will be the available markets and wager types. Tennis provides more markets than most other sports, from competitive money lines to various set lines and over/under markets. We’re going to discuss the best bets in tennis below!
We’ll start with betting on a tournament winner, which is a type of outright or futures market that typically unlocks competitive odds. This is due to the sheer number of competitors and potential winners in the draw (especially during Grand Slams), each of which features 32 seeds and 32 non-seeded players. This draw structure protects the competing seeds.
Match-winner wagering is also incredibly popular when cultivating a betting strategy on tennis. Here, you’ll pick one of two competing players to win, while it’s important to remember that the draw is eliminated as a potential outcome here.
For example, you may pick Carlos Alcaraz to defeat Cameron Norrie at Wimbledon, at odds of -1507. Such odds may look very short, but Alacaraz is a far superior player, especially on grass.
If you want to deploy a tennis live betting strategy, you could consider betting on the number of games that will be completed in a particular match. This is also a viable pre-match market and one that can be researched by analyzing performance statistics for competing players and existing head-to-head records (where relevant).
This strategy is especially useful in games where you expect one player to dominate. In this case, you will be able to back a low number of games at rewarding odds.
In this market, you’ll apply a theoretical games handicap to a betting favorite, and subsequently back them at enhanced odds. However, your pick will have to beat the spread and win by the required margin for the wager to be successful. You can also take an underdog with a virtual advantage and bet at altered odds.
For example, you could handicap Jannik Sinner in his Wimbledon quarter-final with Ben Shelton. If you apply a -4.5 game handicap, the odds of a Sinner win will lengthen from -310 to 102, but the Italian native will have to win by five clear games for the bet to pay out.
Set betting in tennis is also incredibly popular. This is usually framed as an over/under market, in which you’ll predict the total number of sets that will be completed in a particular match. Your selections here will be impacted by the maximum match duration and the quality of the competitors, with potential mismatches likely to be completed much quicker.
Similarly, you can pick the winner of the next game as part of your live tennis betting strategy. The value in this market tends to lie with the player receiving serve. Typically, the server will be favored to win the game, even in women’s tennis, where serves are held at a much lower rate than in the men’s game. If a player is struggling with his serve and facing a strong returner, then this is a market you should focus heavily on.
Pros and Cons of Tennis Betting?
While there are many advantages of tennis betting, there are some potential drawbacks to consider. Here’s a summary so that you can make an informed decision!
Pros
- There’s a huge array of pre-match and live tennis betting markets. These include tennis set betting and the winner of the next point, along with money lines and match handicaps.
- Year-round calendar. Tennis is played 11 months per year, with daily matches across the ATP, WTA, and Challenger tours.
- You can access a diverse selection of player performance statistics when betting on matches. These include serve and return percentages, alongside historic head-to-head records and statistical performances on certain surfaces.
- Sportsbooks offer extensive coverage of tennis events. This is particularly true in the case of Grand Slams and Masters 1000 events, which may also benefit from bespoke promotions and odds bonuses.
- Most tennis bettors lean heavily towards big names and do not bet around value. This makes tennis one of the more beatable markets with research.
Cons
- It’s not uncommon for players to incur injuries during matches. This can negatively impact their performance or force them to retire. This may undermine your strategy and prevent otherwise well-informed bets from paying out.
Tennis Live Betting Strategy for Fast Markets
We’ve already touched on in-play tennis betting, which can create a fast and exciting form of wagering. This also unlocks a much larger selection of betting markets, which we’ve outlined below. What’s your preferred tennis bet in play?
| Fast Market | How it works |
|---|---|
| Game X Point Winner | This will require you to pick the winner of a particular point, usually the next one in a game. This market moves incredibly quickly, although its odds will largely remain unchanged. |
| X Game Correct Score | Similarly, you can bet on the correct score in the next game. This unlocks enhanced odds due to the difficulty of predicting the correct score during a game. |
| Race to X Games | Here, you’ll pick one of two competing players to win a particular number of games first. You can prioritize dominant players here or those who are known to start fast on a particular surface. |
| Game Score after X points | Any number of points can be played during a game, especially once it reaches ‘Deuce’ (40-40). However, you can predict the game score after a predetermined number of points have been played, such as 30-0 after two. |
| Next 2 Games – Either Game To Deuce | You can also wager on either of the subsequent two games in a match to reach a deuce. This is more likely in games with evenly matched players or a particularly good returner of the ball. |
| Set X Total Games | This is an over/under market, which allows you to bet on the number of games that will be played in a set. In potential mismatches, the number of games played will be shorter, but this will increase in more even matchups. |
| Total Games Odd or Even | In this even money market, you’ll bet whether the total number of games played in a set will be odd or even. Although there’s a 50% probability of you predicting this outcome correctly, it’s one that’s determined completely by chance. |
| Player Total Games | This is another over/under market, in which you predict the total number of games that will be won by a player. This will be impacted by the length of the match and the respective quality of the two competitors. |
| The next Player to serve an Ace | Aces refer to first or second serves that aren’t returned. Big and accurate servers are more likely to land aces, and you can bet on the next player to achieve this feat during a game. |
Major Tennis Tournaments to Bet On
When learning how to bet on tennis, it’s also important to identify the best and most popular tournaments. Here’s a summary of the main events on the ATP Tour and the defending champions in each one!
| Tournament/Tour | Venue | Dates | Current Men’s Champion | Current Women’s Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Open | Flushing Meadows | Mon, Aug 25, 2025 – Sun, Sep 7, 2025 | Jannik Sinner | Aryna Sabalenka |
| Wimbledon | Wimbledon, SW19 | Mon, Jun 30, 2025 – Sun, Jul 13, 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | Barbora Krejčíková |
| French Open | Roland Garros | Mon, May 25, 2025 – Sun, June 8, 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | Coco Gauff |
| Australian Open | Melbourne Park | Mon, Jan 12, 2026 – Sun, Feb 1, 2026 | Jannik Sinner | Madison Keys |
| BNP Paribas Open | Indian Wells Tennis Garden | March 1st – 15th, 2026 | Jack Draper | Mirra Andreeva |
| Miami Open | Hard Rock Stadium | March 15th – 29th, 2026 | Jakub Menšík | Aryna Sabalenka |
| Madrid Open | Manzanares Park | May 12th – 20th, 2026 | Casper Ruud | Aryna Sabalenka |
| Italian Open | Foro Italico | May 7th – May 18th, 2025 | Carlos Alcaraz | Jasmine Paolini |
| ATP Finals | Turin, Italy | November 10th – 17th, 2024 | Novak Djokovic | N/A |
| WTA Finals | King Saud University | November 2nd – 9th, 2025 | N/A | Jessica Pegula |
Readwrite’s Free Tennis Betting Tips
When learning how to bet on tennis and win, expert tips and insights can be highly insightful. So, our team has prepared five concise betting tips for tennis to bring your strategies to life!
- Pre-game betting – Prioritize pre-match betting where possible. Here, you’ll find more stable odds and familiar markets. You can diversify with in-play betting as you become more experienced.
- Focus on big tournaments – Wager on the biggest events, such as the Tennis Grand Slams and Masters 1000 tournaments. It’s here that you’ll find the best coverage, most competitive odds, and bespoke bonuses.
- Do the maths – Use published odds to calculate the implied probability of each potential outcome. This helps to inform your selections and makes it easier to identify value bets (we’ll have more on this below)
- Major on Moneylines – Make the most of money lines as part of your tennis betting strategy. Remember, the draw isn’t a possible outcome in tennis, so your chances of winning with this type of bet are improved compared to other sports.
- Data is your friend – Remember to factor in performance statistics for players on specific surfaces. This will directly impact performances and may help you identify better value odds. You can even investigate the use of sports betting bots as part of a strategy using statistics.
How to Find Value Tennis Bets
On the subject of value bets, it can take time and effort to identify opportunities of this type. This is because you need to identify lines where the odds offered by sportsbooks are lower than the true implied probability value of an outcome occurring. Here are some steps to help you identify and leverage value bets in tennis!
- Understand the basic formula for identifying value bets, which reads Value = (Odds * Odds) – 1. If the resulting value is greater than one, this may be an opportunity worth pursuing
- Statistical analysis is central to value betting. It’s this that helps you calculate the exact probability of one player beating another, and this can be used to identify high-value odds.
- Work with sportsbooks that offer exact prices (such as 3.66). Such odds are likely to be more accurate and convey relevant probability values, simplifying the process of finding the best wagers.
- Consider a diverse selection of variables when engaging in a value tennis betting strategy. These include surface type, match length, tournament status, and player form. This way, you can work out precise probabilities and measure these against the odds.
- We’ve spoken about probability a great deal here. The reason for this is simple: it’s important to prioritize probability values and review odds as a secondary consideration. Having this mindset will aid successful value betting.
Other Sports Betting Guides?
Now that tennis betting has been explained, you may want to check out some of our additional sports wagering guides. Here’s a selection of the most popular!
Conclusion
From the sport’s various markets to our top tennis betting tips, this guide should have enough to help you get started. There’s even some in-depth tennis betting strategy advice for more advanced bettors, especially those of you interested in value betting!
Anyone can use the strategies discussed in this guide. You can combine your own preferred tennis betting system with some of the ones we have talked about here. You can do this most effectively at the BetOnline sportsbook. They offer the best tennis odds and markets and are our choice as the number one site!
References
FAQs
What strategy and betting options are the most profitable for tennis betting?
How important is the surface in betting strategy?
Is betting on men’s or women’s tennis more profitable?
Is it possible to bet on tennis live in-play?
What is the legal age to bet on Tennis in the US?
Responsible Gambling
Regardless of your chosen tennis betting strategy, you’ll need to wager responsibly. You should do this to make the most of your bankroll and stay within a budget.
But what if you start to bet outside of your means? This is one of the first symptoms of a gambling problem and one that should encourage you to seek out help and advice from independent organizations. Here are some agencies that can offer practical guidance:
