Today in prediction market news, we’re following another busy day for Kalshi, including its appeal of a Connecticut federal court ruling, a new trademark lawsuit from FlightAware, and a partnership with Nasdaq. We’ll also track the CFTC’s upcoming Innovation Advisory Committee meeting, ProphetX and Pikkit teaming up on regulated sports prediction markets, and breaking developments across prediction markets, regulation, elections, crypto, and sports event trading throughout the day.
Kalshi takes legal fights to Second Circuit
Prediction market attorney Daniel Wallach points out that the Second Circuit has two Kalshi appeals to consider, with cases from New York and Connecticut now heading its way. Crucially, the district courts in both states have so far reached broadly aligned conclusions.
That contrasts with the Sixth Circuit, where rulings involving Ohio and Tennessee have created an intra-circuit split.
There are now two Second Circuit appeals involving Kalshi, but unlike the 6th Circuit intra-circuit split (OH & TN), the two district court opinions (NY & CT) are in complete harmony. Only other CA2 state is Vermont, which is not yet in litigation with Kalshi or any other PM. https://t.co/XnvVqn3H9g
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) August 11, 2026
Senators tell CFTC to extinguish wildfire markets
A group of eight Democratic senators, led by Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla, is pressing CFTC Chair Michael Selig to rein in event contracts tied to wildfires, warning they could create public safety risks and some particularly uncomfortable incentives.
Their letter points to more than $1.2 million wagered on Polymarket around the devastating Palisades and Eaton fires in January 2025. The senators argue wildfire contracts could potentially incentivize people to influence fires while also raising insider-trading concerns.
It states: "By offering contracts on fires, prediction market sites run the risk of encouraging people to influence fires that have already started, creating additional concerns around public safety and insider trading."
They want to know whether the CFTC could prohibit federally regulated exchanges from offering wildfire contracts and what, if anything, it intends to do about similar markets offered offshore. The senators have given Selig until August 14 to respond.
ProphetX and Pikkit team up on sports predictions
ProphetX is putting its federally regulated sports prediction markets in front of a considerably bigger crowd.
The CFTC-regulated exchange has partnered with sports tracking and analytics platform Pikkit, giving its community of hundreds of thousands of sports fans access to ProphetX event contracts directly through Pikkit. Markets will initially cover the NFL, NBA and international soccer, with more contracts expected later.
The partnership is another step in ProphetX’s B2B expansion, effectively supplying the prediction market plumbing while Pikkit brings the audience.
"Pikkit's community is made up of the most engaged traders in the country — people who track every result and know exactly where their edge comes from. That's exactly who prediction markets were built for. Partnering with Pikkit gives that community direct access to a federal exchange where the crowd sets the price and every participant competes on a level playing field, instead of against the house."
— Jake Benzaquen, Co-Founder and Chief Commercial Officer, ProphetX
Prediction market heavyweights get a seat at CFTC table
Prediction markets won’t exactly be short of friends in the room when the CFTC’s new Innovation Advisory Committee gets down to business.
Chairman Michael Selig has announced the committee’s inaugural meeting for August 20 in Washington, describing its role as helping the regulator navigate the increasingly busy intersection of technology, finance, law and policy.
And the membership reads like a prediction market industry Christmas card. As industry observer Matt Rybaltowski notes, it includes figures associated with Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, Robinhood, CME Group, Crypto.com, Nasdaq, Gemini and Coinbase.
The meeting begins at 1 p.m. ET and will be livestreamed by the CFTC.
On August 20, the @CFTC will convene a meeting of some of America’s greatest innovators, builders, thinkers, and entrepreneurs in Washington, DC for a series of conversations on the future of our financial markets.
— Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig) August 10, 2026
Mark your calendars for the inaugural Innovation Advisory… https://t.co/4YrPBSysw2
Kalshi calls in Nasdaq to watch the watchers
The system will be rolled out in phases and is designed to detect market manipulation, insider trading and other suspicious activity in real time. It will also help Kalshi deliver trading data to the CFTC in the regulator’s required format.
Nasdaq says its surveillance technology already serves more than 50 exchanges and 20 international regulators.
This is exactly the kind of solution I love working on — Kalshi integrating with institutional finance. Nasdaq is the gold standard in market surveillance, and for any financial institution building a compliance system for trading on Kalshi, this is a system that can power it.
— robertjdenault (@robertjdenault) August 10, 2026
Connecticut tells Kalshi: no injunction for you
Kalshi’s legal road trip has hit another pothole, this time in Connecticut.
A federal judge has rejected the prediction market operator’s request for a preliminary injunction that would have stopped Connecticut regulators from enforcing state gambling laws against its sports event contracts while the wider case plays out.
Kalshi argues its contracts are federally regulated by the CFTC and that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling rules. Judge Vernon Oliver wasn’t persuaded that Kalshi had shown it was likely to win on those arguments.
Kalshi isn’t packing up just yet: it has already appealed the decision to the Second Circuit.
So, once again, the prediction market industry’s hottest market might just be “Which court gets the final word?”
FlightAware wants Kalshi’s cancellation market grounded
The aviation tracking company has sued Kalshi, accusing the prediction market operator of using its flight data, name and trademarks without permission to run and settle cancellation markets. FlightAware alleges Kalshi continued using its information even after being told to stop, while also arguing the markets created confusion over whether the two companies were working together.
It’s another legal headache for Kalshi, which already has plenty of court dates on its itinerary. Follow today’s live blog for this and everything else taking off in prediction markets.
FlightAware sues #Kalshi over flight cancellation betting data trademark use - https://t.co/9cGBbBKAne @RWW
— Suswati Basu (@suswatibasu) August 11, 2026
