Today in prediction market news, we’re following fresh legal and regulatory developments, including Washington and Crypto.com agreeing to pause their litigation pending a Ninth Circuit ruling, Connecticut urging the Second Circuit to deny Kalshi interim relief, and a new federal bill seeking to ban prediction markets on wildfires.
We’re also tracking prediction market executives sitting out today’s White House meeting, questions surrounding Kalshi’s recently announced Catalist Sports partnership after related pages disappeared, and the latest developments across prediction markets, regulation, crypto, and sports event trading throughout the day.
South Korea blocks Polymarket over gambling concerns
The move adds South Korea to the growing list of jurisdictions wrestling with the question of whether prediction markets are financial products, gambling, or something inconveniently in between.
Crypto.com’s prediction markets are heading for institutional trading desks
Trading Technologies says its institutional trading platform will add connectivity to OG.com, Crypto.com’s CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse. That means TT clients — including banks, hedge funds, proprietary traders and other professional market participants — will be able to access OG.com’s prediction markets through their existing trading workflows.
Crypto.com executive Steve Humenik says the deal is about bringing regulated prediction products directly to institutional participants as the sector matures.
"As regulated prediction markets and digital asset derivatives continue to mature, providing institutional participants with secure, compliant and seamless access is paramount. Partnering with Trading Technologies allows us to effectively bring OG.com's innovative prediction markets products directly into the workflows of the world's leading market participants." - Steve Humenik, Chief Legal Officer of OG.com and EVP of Crypto.com
Kalshi’s $40 billion valuation is ‘staggering’ — and betting big on legal wins
Kalshi may be in the business of pricing uncertainty, but its reported $40 billion valuation apparently leaves little room for regulatory disaster.
Vanderbilt Law professor Yesha Yadav told Bloomberg the figure is “staggering,” pointing to explosive prediction market volumes while warning that serious legal questions still hang over the industry. Those include state battles that could ultimately reach the Supreme Court.
Yadav says Kalshi’s bigger ambition is becoming part of Wall Street’s pricing and hedging infrastructure, with its push into perpetual futures helping broaden the business beyond prediction markets.
As for the CFTC ordering Kalshi to keep operating despite New York’s objections? Yadav called the use of rarely deployed emergency powers “arguably extraordinary.”
Kalshi takes aim at traditional exchanges with stock index perpetuals
As mentioned, Kalshi filed with the CFTC to launch equity index perpetual futures. However, unlike conventional futures, perpetuals don’t expire, meaning traders can maintain leveraged long or short exposure without continually rolling contracts.
There’s an important correction to the initial reports: Reuters originally identified the filing as involving the S&P 500, but later clarified that it concerns a stock index and removed the S&P 500 reference.
Prediction markets were apparently just the opening act. Wall Street, meet the new neighbor.
Kalshi eyes perpetual futures as ‘trade anything’ ambitions grow
Kalshi apparently isn’t content with prediction markets alone. The company has filed with the CFTC to list equity index perpetual futures, according to journalist Nick Devor, with copper also joining the menu.
Single-stock perpetuals aren’t coming “at this time,” but that qualifier is doing some heavy lifting.
Devor points to Kalshi’s ambition to eventually offer 15-minute single-stock markets, with product chief Tarek Mansour previously describing them as a natural fit for the company’s vision of letting users trade practically anything, on any timeframe.
Prediction markets, futures, stocks, copper — at this rate, the question may soon be what Kalshi doesn’t want people trading.
Inbox: @Kalshi files with CFTC to list equity index perpetual futures. They also filed for copper.
— Nick Devor (@nickdevor_) August 18, 2026
Not launching single-stock perpetuals "at this time."
Seems inevitable though considering that single-stock 15-minute markets are an ambition for the firm.
Kalshi's head of…
Prediction markets uninvited from White House tech party
Prediction market executives appear to have been scratched from today’s White House card.
Semafor reporter Eleanor Mueller says a White House official confirmed prediction market companies will not participate in President Trump’s event with tech leaders, despite earlier reporting that Kalshi and its backer Paradigm were among those expected to attend.
The gathering is intended to promote America’s “innovative and technological dominance,” with crypto heavyweights reportedly in the mix.
Why prediction markets are suddenly sitting this one out isn’t clear. But after seemingly making the guest list last week, Kalshi and company will apparently have to watch this particular market from the sidelines.
👀 "The President will host an event with tech leaders tomorrow to strengthen America’s innovative and technological dominance," a White House official tells me.
— Eleanor Mueller (@Eleanor_Mueller) August 18, 2026
"Prediction market companies will not be a part of the event." https://t.co/GAfXAbcbFS
Connecticut tells appeals court: not so fast, Kalshi
Connecticut isn’t ready to let Kalshi hit the pause button on state enforcement.
According to attorney Daniel Wallach, the state is urging the Second Circuit to reject Kalshi’s request for interim administrative relief while the prediction market operator pursues an emergency injunction pending appeal. Connecticut has until August 24 to formally oppose that motion.
Connecticut urges Second Circuit to deny Kalshi’s request for interim administrative relief, which would bar state enforcement action until the resolution of Kalshi’s emergency motion for an injunction pending appeal, and give the State until Aug. 24th to object to the motion. pic.twitter.com/KT3g7ms0zf
— Daniel Wallach (@WALLACHLEGAL) August 18, 2026
Kalshi exec goes to Harvard on prediction market insider trading
Kalshi's Robert DeNault has co-authored a new piece with Wharton professor Daniel Taylor for the Harvard Law School Forum on Corporate Governance, examining how insider-trading surveillance in prediction markets differs from traditional securities markets.
The timing is certainly lively. With politicians increasingly raising alarms about suspiciously well-informed prediction market traders, the industry is facing growing scrutiny over who knows what, and when.
New piece by @ProfAnalytics and myself, published today by @HarvardCorpGov, about the ways insider trading surveillance in prediction markets differs from traditional securities markets.
— robertjdenault (@robertjdenault) August 18, 2026
Give it a read if you're interested in the PM surveillance space - link below. pic.twitter.com/ff5HyP93oE
Kalshi pushes back as Congress targets wildfire prediction markets
Congress is now looking to put out the fire on wildfire prediction markets, with a new House bill seeking to ban contracts tied to wildfires and other natural disasters.
Kalshi’s Robert J. Denault, however, would like everyone to know his company isn’t holding the matches. Responding to Senator Adam Schiff’s criticism of wildfire wagering, Denault said Kalshi doesn’t list wildfire or war markets, arguing they create “bad incentives” and are inconsistent with federal commodities law.
In other words: prediction markets are catching heat, and Kalshi wants everyone to check whose kitchen the smoke is coming from.
Kalshi doesn’t list war or wildfire markets because they create bad incentives and are inconsistent with the CEA. Just like one politician doesn’t define everyone in Washington, one offshore prediction market doesn’t define the whole industry. https://t.co/DMdYQIU8BM
— robertjdenault (@robertjdenault) August 18, 2026
