Internet analyst Mary Meeker from Morgan Stanley presented a report on Internet trends at Events@Google yesterday. Echoing those trends identified in her 2009 presentation, the report focuses on the rapid and continued growth of the mobile internet and social networking. Claiming that the world has entered the fifth major technology cycle, Meeker predicts that this cycle will be marked by the adoption of mobile Internet technologies, as the trends of “3G + Social Networking + Video + VoIP + Impressive Mobile Devices” converge. Meeker predicts the mobile Internet will be bigger than desktop in five years, noting that by comparing iPhone and iPod touch versus AOL and Netscape users, that mobile Internet is ramping up at a rate far faster than desktop did. Furthermore, she argues that 3G coverage has reached a global inflection point, meaning it is available to at least 20% of the world’s cellphone users.
While the trends Meeker identifies in her report will be familiar to ReadWriteWeb readers, it is worth considering how some of what she observes might impact startups, providing opportunities for new business ventures.
Mobile E-Commerce: Not only is mobile increasingly the method by which users are accessing the Internet, Meeker contends that mobile will revolutionize e-commerce, forcing both innovations for both online and brick-and-mortar companies. She identifies location-based services, push notifications, transparent pricing, and instant mobile delivery as four potential areas this will occur.
Virtual Goods: The success of Tencent, with over $2 billion in sales of virtual goods in China, demonstrates the potential for this area, Meeker argues
Applications: Noting the success of both Facebook and Apple in the app market, what Meeker labels as “vibrant developer / application platform ecosystems, ” she suggests that companies will continue to leverage social networks for fans and for revenue.
Video: Meeker’s research points to video as outpacing VoIP and other resources people seek to access with their mobile devices.
Look to Japan: Meeker points to the Japanese social networking site Mixi, who has seen its mobile page views increase from 17% of total views three years ago to 72% today.
It is clear that social networks and mobile Internet will continue to play a huge role in shaping the future of technology and business development.
The full version of Meeker’s presentation is available on Scribd, thanks to Mathew Ingram from GigaOm.
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