Written by Emre Sokullu and edited by Richard
MacManus
Did the above image shock you?
No, this is not a real Google advert! But something similar may well turn into reality.
In this sequel to our original GoogleOS blockbuster, we try to clarify our thoughts on what GoogleOS will look like. You’ll have to read to the end for the exciting conclusion, but we can hint that Linux creator Linus Torvalds has a starring role to play. Please note
that these are not insider rumors, but just some educated guesses 😉
In our first article we examined 3 GoogleOS scenarios:
- It could be a WebOS (a.k.a. virtual desktop), like YouOS
- It could be a full-featured Linux distribution, like Ubuntu
- It could be a (optionally BIOS based) portable mini Linux distro, with the
sole purpose of establishing an internet connection and then firing up Firefox as default
browser.
Also there were some outstanding suggestions and ideas in the comments section to that
first post. One
of them (comment #49) noted that Google could utilize virtualization technology to
host multiple operating systems smoothly – this technology has been developed by
Microsoft, VMWare, Xen and others.
However our conclusion is that the most feasible one is the 3rd scenario –
a mini Linux distro, that users can very easily install and essentially makes
Google/Firefox the default Internet services. Now let’s get into some detail about that
option…
1) Purpose: Cut the Middleman – Windows
Some of you reacted to our first article by saying that it is silly for Google to get
into the operating system business – that they are a search company and they don’t want
to lose their focus. And at this point in time, we agree that it doesn’t make sense for
Google to enter the OS space. That’s why we wrote that all these scenarios will only take
place if the new Windows Vista OS defaults to Live.com
– which will then put pressure on Google. We think Google will have to respond to
that scneario, so it’ll be well within their business focus then.
There is no doubt that operating systems have become little more than a
commodity in today’s world. The most popular server operating systems Linux and
FreeBSD are free and open source. There are many others that are free and open source
too. The fact that Sun Microsystems has recently open sourced and released for free their
Solaris OS also proves this. The new trend is Internet as the development platform – and
all new innovations take place in Internet space and not on the desktop anymore. We are
seeing more and more Meebos, Writelys, salesforce.coms – but not so many Intuits
anymore.
So really, operating systems have become no more than a middleman for the internet.
You use an OS only to access the Internet, which then takes over as the platform to
socialize with people and create/consume data. In other words, the Internet is not a mere
component of an operating system anymore – because it’s fast becoming impossible to
imagine an offline operating system.
All of this pushes us to think that if Google sees a threat from Microsoft’s latest
Windows OS, then they can release a practical operating system that will fit into today’s
world. That is, it must have these characteristics:
- Free, because the OS is a commodity now
- It’s main purpose is to connect you to the Net
- Compact and portable, because increasingly we no longer use one single computer – we
use many (PC, mobile, tv and other devices)
So the purpose of a GoogleOS will be to cut out the middleman (Windows) when it comes
to connecting to the Internet.
2) Strategy: Spread it via internet ads
Google is not the first to try beat up Microsoft in their own game. But there has been
no decisive victory against the Redmond company so far. So everyone knows that Google
should be well prepared with a great strategy this time. And the first condition of this
is awareness, because for most people Windows = Operating System. So first and foremost,
Google should break this dogma and create awareness of its alternative product.
We believe that Google will spread the word with their typical tactics – i.e. no big
advertising campaigns in traditional media, but as always a big buzz campaign via user
recommendations and reviews, blogs and other viral marketing elements.
Internet ads will play an important role in long-term marketing of GoogleOS. Firefox
was very successfully marketed in this manner and Google can do the same with GoogleOS.
The current referral offerings of Google AdSense are:
- Firefox -> $1 if downloaded, installed and homepage visited
- Picasa -> $1 if downloaded, installed and run
- Google AdSense -> $100 for the referred’s first $100 gain
- Google AdWords -> $20 for the referred’s first $100 advertising
But depending on the acceptance of Vista, Google can give a greater incentive of
revenue for GoogleOS. Something like:
- Linux -> $0.5 per completed shipping request
- Linux -> $2 per downloaded, burned to CD or thumbdrive (via an easy interface) and
booted – in other words, accessed to the Internet and defaulting to the Google
homepage
3) The Name
First of all, the name will not be GoogleOS, Googlix or even Google. Our guess is that
Google will simply use the Linux name for their new operating system. They won’t try to
rebrand and will prefer to take advantage of Linux’ neutrality.
This is the same thing as with Firefox. The reasons:
- The main marketing strategy will be ads. So it’s better to leave GoogleOS with a
neutral name. As an advertiser you would prefer promoting neutral products. This would
allow even non profit sites to use and also it will be an incentive for the huge geek
world. Google knows this – and that’s what they did with Firefox. - The awareness of Linux is already very large. So why not use it? Many people are
already wondering about Linux and what it offers – but have not had the opportunity or
are scared to give it a try. GoogleOS would be perfect for those people. - Google doesn’t want to seem too distracted. They don’t want to be known as an
operating system company, even though in a business sense it may become imperative to do
a GoogleOS. - If Google did rebrand Linux, some may accuse it of ‘doing evil’ – so no need
for such hassles for Google.
Needless to say, to be able to do that – as with any other Linux company – Google also
will need to pay large amounts to Linus Torvalds, the holder of the Linux trademark.
And note that Google is not alone in this. Oracle, another NASDAQ giant, created its
own version of Linux – with an emphasis on the Linux brand instead of rebranding it.
4) Acquisition? No…
Google already has many Linux Kernel level engineers in their team. And you can see
from http://google.com/jobs that they’re still very
hungry for this position.
So we don’t think they will spend much money to acquire a company like Ubuntu
(Canonical) – because they are known to be very selective and acquire small but
efficient companies only. But we may expect huge hirings from the Mountain View company.
Don’t be surprised if they hire the father of Linux, Linus Torvalds!
That’s something that Google likes to do; they have the creator of Python (the main
programming language used in Google applications), Guido Van Rossum, and the father of
the Internet, Vint Cerf, in their team already.
5) Disruptive Offering
All promising Google products had a disruptive offering that shook the market up and
changed the rules.
Gmail’s unlimited storage space promise is perhaps the best example of this. This
time, besides the advantageous ad campaign for web site owners we mentioned, Google can
come up with a Free Support offering. Because so far, Linux has been free – but support
is paid for. If you think free support will be way too costly for Google, you are wrong.
Because this will be such a small system, that the number of possible problems will be
very limited.
Secondly, Google may introduce a seamless VXML powered phone support system that will
be close to human quality, but depend on machines.
And thirdly, this will be for the clear advantage of Google – because if they want to
beat Windows at their own game, they should definitely play the game perfectly and
embrace non-geek users (who for example are unable to change a few changes in their
BIOS).
Another possibility is that Google could send copies of their operating system to
consumers, via CD-ROM, free of charge. Don’t say this is impossible, because Ubuntu
already did it! Ubuntu is known to send free CDs all around the world, under a program
called shipit.
Conclusion
We end this post with a passage from Nostradamus, slightly modified 😉
An Emperor shall be born near Italy Mountain View.
From a soldier simple search engine he will rise to the
empire,
A great troop shall come through Russia Redmond.
Great swarms of bees ads shall ariseall around
the Internet.
The destroyer shall ruin a city an operating
system.
The exhausted defeated ones will die in the
white closed source territory.
OK perhaps all of this is fantasyland. You may even think we smoke
too much crack. But even if these claims do not come true, there is some valuable
analysis here that hopefully helps understand Google’s patterns and potential.
Tell us what you think, we have just covered 5 points here – but you may have other
predictions. Or criticisms of our line of thought. After all, Nostradamus does not help
us with GoogleOS predictions, we have to make those ourselves 😉
