The Bitcoin price has risen exponentially since the fourth financial quarter of 2023, up 163% from the start of October last year.
If the Bitcoin price closes the month of March over $61,157, it would be the first time in its history that BTC ends seven straight months in the green.
However, whether Bitcoin achieves this historic feat or not remains dubious. The largest cryptocurrency has been in a short term bearish trend over the past week, declining by 14% in that period and yesterday seeing the largest price crash since the FTX collapse.
The increasing macroeconomic risks and a hawkish SEC could prove too much for an already overheated crypto market. Considering that the Bitcoin price has seen one of its strongest bull rallies ever, one of the biggest corrections could also be coming.
Why Is Crypto Down Today? How Low Can BTC Go?
The tide has been shifting slowly but steadily in favor of the bears, as highlighted perfectly by the spot Bitcoin ETF flows.
The ETFs recorded an outflow of $154 million on March 18th, their first negative day since March 1st. Grayscale had its worst ever day – an outflow of $642.5 million – as did Fidelity, with a record low inflow of just $5.9 million.
[1/4] Bitcoin ETF Flow – 18 March 2024
All data in. $154m net outflow. First outflow day since 1st March. Biggest disappointment was Fidelity inflow appears to be declining, just $5.9m on the day, a record low. pic.twitter.com/6uvxPfarz7
— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) March 19, 2024
The ETFs have acted as a risky proxy for Bitcoin so far, with the popular market sentiment being “the ETFs will buy the dip anyway”. The switch from record inflows to record outflows is sure to have an adverse impact on the BTC price.
The bearish trend in Bitcoin is primarily due to the increasing macroeconomic risks, as highlighted by the worse-than-expected bad Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index data. The market has already shifted its expectation from 7 rate cuts this year to 3, data from CME FedWatch reveals. The first such decision by the Fed will come later today, March 20th, at the FOMC meeting.
However, analysts such as Jesse Cohen, the global market analyst at Investing.com, believes that the Fed may not pivot to quantitative easing at all this year, which could be disastrous for the broader equities and the crypto market. According to macro investor Jim Bianco, the estimates of the February PCE – which is the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – will further cement this sentiment.
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Below are the estimates for February PCE, which will be released at the end of the month.
This is the inflation metric the Fed uses. It will tell them that rate cuts are nowhere in sight right now.
— Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) March 16, 2024
The history is also not in Bitcoin’s favor. The BTC price traditionally corrects 14 to 28 days before the Bitcoin halving. According to a popular crypto analyst Ali Charts, market makers may try to grab a huge liquidity pool below $50,000, which could lead to the Bitcoin price falling to $49,000.
Bitcoin Price Prediction – Is The Top In For BTC?
Despite an impending crash, the top may not be in for Bitcoin just yet. The Pi Cycle Top indicator, which has been incredibly accurate in calling the peaks during previous cycles, reveals that there is still plenty of room for growth.
Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo has also mentioned the possibility of a double pump cycle as also seen in 2013. This could lead to a local top in mid-2024, followed by another top in 2025.
At the rate the #Bitcoin Macro Index is pumping, I wouldn't be surprised if we get a top by mid-2024, which would hint at a double pump cycle like 2013… a second top in 2025. pic.twitter.com/i2a0V5ytPv
— Willy Woo (@woonomic) March 19, 2024
Aside from its cyclic nature, the Bitcoin price has strongly been correlated with global liquidity. Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Jurrien Timmer reveals that liquidity is on the rise again since mid-2023, spurring stocks and cryptocurrencies with it.
Crypto and macro analyst @tedtalksmacro reveals that considering Japan, which is the largest foreign owner of US Treasuries, is now pivoting to quantitative tightening, the liquidity in US may surge even more. Consequently, the Bitcoin price could restart its bullish trajectory after the halving.
Are Presale Tokens A Better Investment?
Considering the negative sentiment surrounding Bitcoin, investors could consider switching to stablecoins or presale tokens as neither of the two are impacted by short-term price action.
Presale alternatives to Bitcoin are already seeing strong growth, with Green Bitcoin quickly raising over $6 million in its presale. Analysts like Cilinix Crypto predict that $GBTC could display a 10x growth after its launch, especially acting as a beta bet on Bitcoin.
Green Bitcoin combines the legacy of BTC with the eco-friendliness and high scalability of Ethereum. Being an ERC-20 token, it also introduces on-chain staking to the Bitcoin ecosystem through an innovative program.
