The great thing about being a Wall Street analyst is few people ever go back to check and see if the bold predictions you made months or even years ahead of time actually come true.
Still, a report released by IHS in the wake of Microsoft’s earnings announcement last week is worth a closer look.
Wayne Lam, IHS’s senior analyst for wireless communications, is predicting that Windows Phone will be the second most popular mobile operating system by 2015, eclipsing Apple’s iOS and coming in second to Google’s Android. Lam attributed the rapid market share gain to the strength of a product line being developed by Nokia that uses Windows Phone.
“Combined with Nokia’s efforts to drive the development of the Windows Phone ecosystem, the Lumia 900 and its successors will help Microsoft to reclaim its No. 2 ranking in smartphone operating system market share by 2015.” Lam wrote.
To do so, Microsoft would need to jump from its current market share of 2% to 16.7% in four years. Windows Phone has gotten loads of praise from reviewers and tech writers, but the company does face some hurdles, including a lack of apps when compared to the number of apps available for iPhone and Android.
Based on comments after the release of its earnings Thursday (which topped Wall Street analysts’ estimates), Microsoft seems to be positioning itself to make Windows Phone more developer friendly. To date, developers have been far more interested in working on applications for iOS or on Web-based platforms.
“I would say one of the things [we] talked about at CES last week was just how important it is for us to work on and with developers to create a really vibrant developer ecosystem,” said Bill Koefoed, Microsoft’s general manager of investor relations, during the call with analysts.
