Cloud computing blogger Chirag Mehta and Constellation Research Group principal analyst R “Ray” Wang published today a list of their cloud computing predictions for 2011. The pair sees public cloud adoption stalling temporarily, the spread of the app store model in the enterprise, the convergence of Development-as-a-Service and Platform-as-a-Service and an overall simplification of the technology landscape as some of the most important trends in cloud computing in 2011.

Mehta and Wang’s predictions are:

  1. Most new procurement will be replaced with cloud strategies
  2. Private clouds will serve as a stepping stone to public clouds
  3. Cloud customers will stop saying “the cloud is not secured” and start asking hard questions about how the cloud can be secured
  4. Public cloud adoption will be temporarily reduced by concerns about cybersecurity. Private clouds will be kept for security and backups.
  5. A transition from best-of-breed purpose-built applications to “cloud mega stacks” will occur. (See our article “Jive Just Became a Platform Vendor” for more on this idea.)
  6. App stores will be the predominate channel for application deployment
  7. User experience and scale will no longer be mutually exclusive
  8. Custom application development will shift to the cloud
  9. Development-as-a-Service and Platform-as-a-Service will merge
  10. Integration vendors will be expected to offer integration beyond data
  11. Consumer tech features such as social business platforms, mobile enterprise capabilities, predictive analytical models and unified communications will continue to proliferate in the enterprise
  12. Customers will demand better virtualization
  13. The overall technology landscape will simplify thanks to the cloud
  14. Archiving and data management will be core competencies for cloud users

What do you think of these predictions?

I think cybersecurity concerns may actually drive more enterprises to public clouds. Remember, those diplomatic cables and other materials published by WikiLeaks were hosted on-premise, not in the cloud. So were all those systems hit with Stuxnet. While last week’s breach at Microsoft might cause some concern, that problem was minor and fixed quickly without any patching on the part of Microsoft’s customers.

For more 2011 cloud predictions, see our article on Forrester’s James Staten’s predictions.

Update:Part 2 is now available.