While Microsoft is obviously having trouble convincing consumers to adopt Windows 8, its message is that enterprises have been far more accepting. It turns out that might not be true, either.

Last week, Forrester Research released a report claiming that Microsoft's Windows 7 is used in about 50% of all enterprise installationss, based both on its own surveys as well as a sampling of the Web traffic across it own servers. That's not surprising, given that Windows 7 was released to enterprises years ago, in mid-2009.

But what's more shocking - and more worrisome to Microsoft - is a survey of IT professionals polled by Dell's KACE systems management unit last week. It seems that even now, companies who are finally upgrading from Windows XP are turning away from Windows 8 in droves, selecting instead the older Windows 7 operating system. Of the 273 IT professionals who said that they're upgrading from Windows XP, just 2% said they're choosing Windows 8. The vast majority - 69% - said that they're choosing Windows 7 instead.

2013: A Key Transition Year From Windows XP

For Microsoft and many of its customers, 2013 represents a key transitional year. Many of its enterprise customers will be forced to move away from Windows XP,  which Microsoft plans to cease supporting on April 8, 2014. Microsoft is eager to sell those customers an upgrade to Windows 8, Office 2013, and other services, while PC makers hope they'll buy all new PCs, too.

In September of 2012, though, research firm Gartner warned enterprises that they should upgrade to Windows 7, not Windows 8. Gartner vice president Richard Kleynhans said then that he was aware of many enterprises doing just that. "Get Windows 7 done, and then you can start to experiment and dabble with Windows 8, but don't let Windows 8 derail your Windows 7 upgrade project," Kleynhans said.

That's a lesson Dell customers apparently have apparently taken to heart. The reason, explained Lisa Richardson, a senior product manager for Dell KACE, is simple: complexity equals cost.

Transition Fatigue

"For a lot of them, it's fatigue. It's OS fatigue," Richardson said. "It's, 'OK, we're making this huge shift to Windows 7, we know it's been tested, it's been around, we have to move onto it.' What we're hearing from IT administrators is that there's a challenge from moving to Windows 7 and its ribbon interface. But Windows 8 is an ever bigger shift in terms of user experience. And what I'm finding out is that because it's such a big shift in user experience, such a huge jump from Windows XP to Windows 8, support calls are going to go up. That drives up support costs, and that turns off many IT administrators."

The other big transition concern is applications compatibility, especially with line-of-business programs developed in house, Richardson reported. Compatibility issues, however, can crop in both Windows 7 and Windows 8.

In case you're wondering, operating system upgrades are what Dell KACE does. The Dell KACE Deployment Appliance manages OS upgrades across enterprises (including apps, files, and operating systems), so IT admins participating in the survey have skin in the game. The survey participants represented a mix of existing KACE customers as well as prospective clients, Dell said.

Richardson added that 15% of the survey participants said they plan to deploy both Windows 8 and Windows 7, and 10% said they wouldn't install either one. A second survey question indicated that 17% of participants had completed their upgrade, 18% were three-quarters done, and that an additional 13% said they were at least halfway done. But almost half (49%) said either that they were either less than halfway done or hadn't even begun.

Forrester's data, meanwhile, also gives an edge to Windows 7 over WIndows 8. The firm found that its Web traffic was about 50% Windows 7, with 47.5% of IT managers saying they've installed it. Windows XP still accounted for about 22.3% of traffic, or 38.2% of systems; Macs are about 14.6% of traffic, and 14.3% of self-reported employee PC ownership. Windows 8 was too new to make the IT survey, but represented just 1% of Forrester's traffic from May 2012 through January 2013.

Windows 8 Or Windows 7: It's Still Good News For Hardware Makers

No matter OS enterprises are upgrading to, Dell found, the time seems ripe for a hardware refresh. A lot of IT customers reported that PCs were being asked to last far longer than the previously standard three-year refresh cycle because of the effects of the recession - often five to six years. "Those systems couldn't support either Windows 7 or Windows 8," Richardson said, in part because they don't have big enough hard drives.

And hardware still matters, even as the trend toward mobile devices implies that the cloud is shouldering more of the workload. "A stylized view suggests that computing is moving to the cloud and that platforms don’t matter anymore," Forrester's report concluded. "This stylized view couldn’t be more wrong — today and for the next five years or longer. The mobile revolution continues afoot, as users shift computing minutes from traditional PCs and Macs to tablets, smartphones, and new classes of devices like hybrids and convertibles."

And that's where the good news for Microsoft may be found. Richardson reported strong IT demand for Windows tablets - as supplemental devices, not as laptop replacements - to the point where Kace plans to add support for Windows 8 deployments on tablets.

The War For Windows? Or For PCs?

Forrester's message is that platforms still matter. But listen closely to what Microsoft's saying these days, and the interpretation changes.

"Businesses continue to value the Windows platform," Chris Suh, general manager of Microsoft's investor relations, said during the company's recent conference call. "Volume licensing of Windows is on track to deliver almost $4 billion in revenue this year, and nearly three quarters of enterprise agreements that we’ve signed this year include Windows. Additionally, this quarter we saw continued progress in the transition of Windows XP to Windows 7, and now two thirds of enterprise desktops are running Windows 7."

It's all Windows, Windows, Windows. But notice the careful phrasing. Microsoft's message is that businesses value Windows, not necessarily Windows 8.

For a company reacting to the alarm bells analysts are sounding on the future of the PC, Microsoft's statements signify an important strategic retrenching: for years, Microsoft fought to establish its latest operating system to spearhead continued growth. As this data from Forrester and Dell shows, though, Microsoft may be forced to acknowledge that Windows 8 is a lost cause within the enterprise. The new, lesser goal may be simply trying to hold on to the Windows PC - any flavor of Windows PC.

Lead image of Tami Reller discussing Windows 8 and images of Windows XP, 7, 8 via Microsoft.

A survey of 2,000 Internet users say they’re impressed with Microsoft’s Windows 8 and Surface tablet - but they still like Windows 7 even more.

In fact, according to a poll conducted by Toluna QuickSurveys for ReadWrite, users even prefer Windows XP over Windows 8. With that said, more users indicate that they’ll upgrade to Windows 8 than not, and the numbers of those saying they would buy new Windows 8 hardware outweighed those that said they were not likely to do.

Not Scientific - But Useful Data Points

Toluna doesn’t claim that the results are scientific, and the findings shouldn’t be considered a guarantee of the projected outcomes. Still, the survey represents one of the few early data points that indicate the success of Microsoft’s latest offerings into the consumer market.

RW asked six questions following the launch of Windows 8, trying to determine how, or if, consumers planned to shop for Windows 8 tablets and software over the short term. We also asked if consumers found the Windows 8 “Metro” interface confusing.

Unfortunately, we don’t know how many of those respondents have actually used Windows 8, although the number would probably be insignificant. Therefore, the survey is probably most telling from the perspective of the pre-release information Microsoft has released on Windows 8 and Surface, via its blogs as well as the press, plus its billion-dollar marketing blitz.

(If you're having problems viewing the graphics, try hitting CTRL+-, or CRTL-"dash" to shrink the font and make the images bigger.)

Clearly, those who own a Windows PC plan to upgrade it to Windows 8. Note that, at least according to the poll, the majority of users run Windows.  One trend that you’ll see consistently throughout the poll, however, is that there are still a great number of undecided consumers, meaning that both Apple, Microsoft, and other vendors have a chance to attract these customers.

Again, good news for Microsoft and for PC makers in general. Again, it’s hard to know how many purchases this will translate into, but the radical new touchscreen PCs and tablets are tempting consumers to open their wallets.

This was one of the controversial questions. Is Windows 8’s interface confusing? Users who downloaded and used the preview version undoubtedly became more familiar with it, jumping back and forth between the live tiles and the more traditional desktop. Here, the results seem to indicate that more users than not find it confusing, although Toluna garbled the response format.

However, the numbers are still there, just not organized into a bar graph. Conclusion is that substantially more people than not consider the Metro interface confusing.

A nice win for Windows, but look which direction the data is skewing. Towards Windows RT? No, clearly not. Instead, Windows 8 appears to be dominating sentiment, pulling purchasing sentiment away from the iPad and Android tablets, of those who indicated that they plan to purchase.  So many more, however, don’t plan to upgrade or buy a new tablet. Based on the market, that means that they don’t plan to buy a tablet. Another interpretation is that they already own an iPad and are happy with it.

One of the more interesting results in our mini-survey. The majority of respondents are either not sure or don’t plan to buy a tablet. But for those that do, the poll is breaking toward the Surface with Windows 8, not Windows RT. And this poll was taken on Thursday, the day of the announcement. While Thursday night’s lines indicate a strong response for the Surface RT, a number of you are likely holding out for the full-fledged Windows 8 version.

It’s also bad news for other OEMs that plan to release a Windows tablet. Personally, I would have expected most respondents would buy a third-party notebook or tablet, but maybe the Surface is just the product to beat at the moment. Certainly, from a volume perspective, it has the most reviews.

What’s surprising here isn’t that Windows 7 and Windows 8 are the preferred operating systems, it’s that there’s such a preference for Windows XP, now over 11 years old. And while an expressed preference for Windows 7 over Windows 8 isn’t that surprising, that Windows XP would top Windows 7 is.

Methodology

Again, this study shouldn’t be considered scientific. Here’s the methodology:  The survey was conducted online within the United States on October 25, 2012 among 2000 adults aged 18 and over, selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Toluna QuickSurveys.  

Figures for age, sex, and region were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in Toluna surveys, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated, the company said.

Survey respondents were about equally divided between the 18-34, 35-54, and 55+ age groups. Over 50 percent of the survey responders had had at least some university background. More women (63 percent) than men answered the poll, compared to 50.8 percent of the U.S. population who are female.

One more time: we didn’t set out to scientifically determine how Windows 8 or the Surface would fare. But until we have the first sales numbers back in a few weeks or months, this is one of the data points we have to go on. And so far, it looks like Windows 8 is on the road to success. The success of the individual Surface versions, however, could be a more interesting story.