Oracle Chief Executive Larry Ellison seldom shies away from a fight, so it's no surprise his company came out swinging over an unfavorable Forrester Research report.

Forrester certainly struck a nerve when it released a survey on Wednesday that found a majority of customers using Oracle's e-Business Suite, PeopleSoft and Siebel business applications had no interest in switching to the company's next-generation Fusion Applications. Those laggards are complicating Oracle's efforts to reverse a slowdown in application revenue, Forrester said.

Oracle's Response

In a three-page counterattack, Oracle tore into the market-research firm. "This is a speculative note based on misconceptions and wrong hypotheses," the company thundered.

(See also "Why Oracle Fusion Doesn't Excite Customers")

Despite Oracle's ostensible outrage, its counterattack is unconvincing. The company claims Forrester did not talk to enough of its customers to back its claims, as if the firm was doing a random survey of all of Oracle's customers.

Forrester never said it was doing that kind of survey. Instead, the respondents came from 180 of the firm's contacts that were responsible for choosing IT products and had knowledge of Oracle applications. "While nonrandom, the survey is still a valuable tool for understanding where users are today and where the industry is headed," the report says.

Commonsense would tell you that there are more reasons for Oracle customers to stay with the applications they have than to move to Fusion, which has a different code base. Such an undertaking is expensive, takes a long time and draws IT staff away from other pressing projects. With the older applications still being upgraded and working just fine, why would anyone want to make a major change?

(See the full text of its rebuttal below.)

The most damaging part of the survey was Forrester's finding that 65% of customers using the older business applications had no plans to switch to Fusion. Another 24% were on the fence.

Oracle complained that the survey only covered U.S. and European customers. Likewise, it noted that more than 40% of the respondents were in manufacturing, government, education and healthcare – industries it claims aren't representative of Oracle's overall customer base. For instance, Oracle cited an IDC report noting that Fusion doesn't yet fully support manufacturing operations, implying that manufacturers might reasonably be less than interested in making the switch to immature applications.

Ellison and company also moaned that many questions were phrased in a "negative way," as if that somehow disqualified the responses. Such questions included "What do you dislike most about your firm's most important Oracle applications?" and "Why doesn't your firm plan to use Oracle Fusion Applications?"

Who Do You Believe?

The report also claimed that Oracle has no clear strategy for migrating customers to Fusion. The company disagreed, saying it has always told customers they could adopt pieces of the product portfolio at their own pace and that everything – old and new – would work together.

Forrester also said that customers staying with the older applications were missing out on innovation. Again Oracle cried foul, saying that at Oracle OpenWorld last year, the company discussed future releases for E-Business Suite and PeopleSoft, as well as roadmaps for all its applications. Examples of innovation include iPad certification in PeopleSoft and new mobile capabilities in Siebel, Oracle said.

Despite Oracle's protestations, Forrester is not budging. "We stand by the report," spokesman Phil LeClare said. So, readers will have to decide whom they believe. Personally, given Oracle's recent lack of truth in advertising and its tendency to pretend to have cloud technology when it doesn't, I'll lean toward Forrester.

Here's the full Oracle rebuttal:

Image courtesy of drserg/Shutterstock.

In 2006, Oracle promised customers it would always support and update its growing portfolio of business applications. By then it had swallowed PeopleSoft and Siebel Systems and it had to reassure customers that their investments were secure. Fast-forward seven years, and Oracle's promise, which it called Applications Unlimited, is coming back to haunt the software maker.

While trying to hold on to PeopleSoft and Siebel customers, Oracle was just getting started on its own Fusion Applications. The company marketed Fusion as its next-generation application suite that would bring together the best of its e-Business Suite and the software it had acquired for billions of dollars. Oracle believed Fusion would eventually spark a mass migration from the older applications to the latest and greatest from its own stable. But a new survey from Forrester Research has found Oracle was wrong, and customers are holding the company to its word and sticking with the older software with which they're familiar.

Oracle's Dilemma

By refusing to switch to the more expensive Fusion apps, Oracle customers are making it difficult for the company to grow application revenue, according to Forrester. "In recent years, Oracle's application revenue growth has underperformed both the overall software market and SAP, resulting from slowing growth in existing apps and too little revenue from its Oracle Fusion Applications," according to the report, entitled "Oracle's Dilemma: Applications Unlimited Versus Oracle Fusion Applications."

Forrester's numbers are sobering. The survey of Oracle clients found 65% had no plans to move to Fusion Applications and another 24% were on the fence. The biggest barriers were Oracle's muddled application strategy and the immaturity of Fusion, which became generally available in November 2011.

At the same time, recent acquisitions of software-as-a-service companies, such as Taleo and RightNow Technologies, are not bringing in enough revenue to take up the slack, according to Forrester. Oracle customers show little interest in trying the SaaS products, with only 11% of survey respondents interested in making the move.

Making matters worse, Oracle is in danger of losing business from some of its customers. Forrester found 29% of the companies it polled were planning to move to another vendor's SaaS product or packaged application. The main reasons for their unhappiness with Oracle were high licensing costs, high maintenance costs and difficulty in upgrading.

Impact on Oracle Customers

Oracle's lackluster revenue growth could eventually have an impact on customers. When revenue from a vendor's products are flat or declining, the company often treats the software as a "cash cow, milking maintenance revenues and cutting back in its investment in enhancing and supporting them," Forrester says.

While there are no signs that Oracle is heading down that path, the company is unlikely to let Applications Unlimited customers stay where they are forever. Oracle has sunk too much money and resources in Fusion Applications to let customers ignore them, Forrester says.

Oracle is expected to step up efforts to get customers to move to Fusion or its cloud infrastructure products. How the company will do that is not known, but it could decide to make life harder for companies that stay with the older technology. Forrester is advising companies to start preparing for the added pressure they will be feeling from Oracle.

For Oracle, Forrester believes it's "make-or-break time" for its applications business. The company's Fusion Applications are its main strategy for growing software revenue and defending against a number of fast-growing SaaS competitors.

Forrester believes that won't be enough.

Oracle is likely to kick-start its growth strategy with more acquisitions, and the likeliest candidates will be fast-growing SaaS companies. In the meantime, Applications Unlimited customers should ponder their next move.

Oracle did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Image courtesy of Shutterstock.