The first whisperings about a new product begin and the headlines start talking about how such-and-such is a so-and-so “killer”. The iPad was a Kindle killer, Google Buzz a Twitter killer, and so on. Of course, very few things, if any, are actually killers of any sort, and one site is offering a new take on this idea: put your money where your mouth is.
The latest (apparently confirmed) rumor to hit the blogosphere is Google’s in-development entry into social networking, Google Me, called the “Facebook Killer” by more than one blog. In response, sportsbook and betting site YouWager is offering odds on the latest potential “killer” to hit the blogosphere.
According to the site, Google Me is on the way soon, will be immediately popular but will likely not, indeed, be the “Facebook Killer” it has been dubbed. See below for the odds (as of this posting) the site is giving on those particular scenarios:
Will Google Me launch by Labor Day Weekend?
No 75% (-300)
Yes 31% (+200)
Will Google Me solicit one million users within the first week of launch?
Yes 67% (-200)
No 50% (+100)
Will Facebook go extinct by 2012?
No 67% (-200)
Yes 50% (+100)
If you, like me, aren’t much of a gambler, then here’s an explanation of how the folks at YouWager came up with these numbers and what they mean:
The odds are calculated by doing some research on the topic at hand, ie. Trends in the social networking space, popularity of Facebook and more, how far is in the development stages Google Me is, etc.. The percentage is merely the likelihood that the instance will occur. For example, for the first question, there’s a 75% chance that Google Me will launch by Labor Day weekend. Because the percentage is high, the pay out for betters is lower if that instance happens since the odds are high in the favor of the launch not happening.
Do you still think Google Me is going to be the next “Facebook Killer”? If so, head on over to YouWager and make some quick bucks, then!
